India is currently navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its relationships with the United States and Russia while seeking a favorable trade deal with Washington. This balancing act has been brought into sharp focus following recent claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to halt India's imports of Russian oil.
Trump's statement, made during a White House event, has been met with uncertainty and contradiction. While Trump asserted that Modi had assured him India would cease buying oil from Russia, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated they were "not aware" of any such conversation between the two leaders. They reaffirmed that India's energy decisions are driven by national interest and strategic autonomy. Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesman for India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), said in a news conference that he had no knowledge of any new conversation between the two leaders. The MEA also stated that its priority was “to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario” and that “our import policies are guided entirely by this objective”.
India has maintained a long-standing relationship with Russia, particularly in the areas of defense and energy. Russia remains the largest supplier of arms to India. Since the war in Ukraine, India has become one of the largest purchasers of Russian oil, taking advantage of discounted prices. This has, however, caused friction with the U.S., which has been pressuring India to reduce its reliance on Russian energy. In August, the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25% penalty linked to Russian oil transactions. Some White House advisors have gone so far as to accuse India of being a "laundromat for the Kremlin" and characterizing Russia's conflict with Ukraine as "Modi's war".
Despite the pressure from the U.S., India has consistently asserted its right to make its own energy decisions based on its national interests. India has publicly stood firm, claiming it would not let the US dictate its energy needs or interfere in its relationship with Russia, which dates back to the cold war. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman have both said Russian oil purchases will continue for as long as it makes economic sense. India has also pointed to the West's double standards in still buying Russian gas.
At the same time, India is keen to secure a trade deal with the U.S. and reduce tariff rates. Trade talks have been ongoing between India and the US for months now, with the goal of concluding a deal by November. Some reports suggest that Indian negotiators have privately indicated a willingness to cut back on oil purchases from Moscow, but couldn't announce it publicly for fear of domestic political backlash. Prime Minister Modi indicated a potential reduction in Russian oil purchases, signaling a willingness to work with Washington, though emphasizing the need for cost-effective energy supplies for consumers. A White House official even told Reuters that Indian refiners are set to reduce their imports of Russian oil by 50%. However, Indian sources indicated that the reduction has not yet been observed and suggested that any decrease might become apparent in the import data for December or January.
The situation remains fluid and requires careful diplomacy. India's ability to balance its relationships with the U.S. and Russia will be crucial in achieving its strategic and economic goals. The pursuit of a trade deal with the U.S., coupled with the need for affordable energy, presents a significant challenge for Indian policymakers.
