Greg McElroy, an ESPN college football analyst, has identified two Indiana football games that could be pivotal in defining Curt Cignetti's season in 2025. Following an unexpected playoff appearance and a program-best 11-2 record in the previous season, the Hoosiers are aiming to sustain their success, albeit with adjusted expectations.

McElroy, during his "Always College Football" podcast, analyzed Indiana's schedule, emphasizing that securing a bowl berth should be the minimum objective. He projects a 3-0 start in nonconference play against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. Furthermore, he believes Indiana can secure victories against Michigan State and UCLA at home, as well as against Purdue on the road, thus achieving the six wins necessary for bowl eligibility.

"They should be 3-0 in the nonconference," McElroy stated. "If you look at their other wins, I think they can get Michigan State at home, UCLA at home, and Purdue on the road. Now, you are at six wins automatically."

While McElroy sees a clear path to bowl eligibility, he pinpoints two games that will truly test Indiana's mettle: the road games against Oregon and Penn State. He anticipates these matchups will be challenging for the Hoosiers. Both Oregon and Penn State are considered potential favorites to win their conference.

"The L's, I think you're not going to win at Oregon, and I have a hard time envisioning them winning on the road against Penn State," McElroy noted.

These games are significant not only due to the caliber of the opponents but also because they represent opportunities for Indiana to prove its competitiveness against top-tier programs. Last season, Indiana's schedule strength was a topic of discussion, and while they achieved an impressive record, their two losses came against teams that ultimately played for the national championship. A strong showing, even in defeat, against Oregon or Penn State would validate Indiana's progress under Cignetti and demonstrate their ability to compete at a higher level.

Looking ahead, Indiana's schedule presents both opportunities and challenges. The Hoosiers will open their Big Ten conference schedule against Illinois. According to ESPN, Indiana will face three ranked teams in 2025: Penn State, Oregon and Illinois.

Cignetti himself acknowledges the need for improvement, particularly against tougher opponents. After their playoff loss to Notre Dame, he expressed disappointment in the team's performance against "the big boys." This acknowledgement suggests a focus on elevating the team's performance in critical matchups.

Indiana has been proactive in addressing its weaknesses, particularly on the offensive line. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who threw for over 3,000 yards last season, will be replaced by California transfer Fernando Mendoza. Several transfers could start on the offensive line, and the receiving corps should be solid with Makai Jackson and California transfer Jonathan Brady. The team also returns key defensive players and has added depth through the transfer portal.

Ultimately, while a bowl berth is a reasonable expectation for Indiana in 2025, the games against Oregon and Penn State will serve as crucial benchmarks. These contests will reveal whether the Hoosiers can compete with the elite teams in college football and solidify their status as a program on the rise under Curt Cignetti.