The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, 2025, marking the earliest onset since 2009, eight days ahead of the usual date of June 1. This early arrival generated optimism for a bountiful rainy season across India. However, the monsoon's subsequent progress has been slower than anticipated, leading to concerns among farmers, policymakers, and meteorologists.

Several factors contributed to the initial rapid advance of the monsoon. Strong weather systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal helped to pull the monsoon winds inland, facilitating its quick spread across Kerala, parts of Maharashtra, southern Karnataka, and Mizoram. These systems created favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including strong easterly and westerly winds, high-pressure zones over the western Pacific, and sustained thunderstorms over southern India. The early onset led to significantly higher rainfall than usual in Karnataka during May, with the monsoon covering 60% of the state much earlier than normal.

Despite the promising start, the monsoon's progress has since stalled. As of early June, experts noted little to no movement was expected for at least a week to 10 days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that the system over the Bay of Bengal, which had been supporting the monsoon's advancement, had weakened. A fresh system in the Bay of Bengal is typically essential for the monsoon to regain momentum, but forecast models initially showed only early signs of such a system potentially developing after June 10.

One significant reason for the stalled progress is the intrusion of dry air from the western and northwestern parts of India. This dry air mass is connected to weather activities as far west as western Russia, where a strong high-pressure region has formed, pushing dry winds across Pakistan and Afghanistan into India. This "blast of dry air" disrupts the moisture-bearing monsoon winds, hindering their northward movement.

The monsoon's behavior is also influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). While both are currently in neutral phases, which are generally favorable for the monsoon, they aren't strong enough to accelerate its advance. The Arabian Sea branch is currently stronger, driving moisture westward but not effectively supporting inland progression. The Bay of Bengal branch, which typically aids eastward and northward movement, is underperforming.

The delayed monsoon progress has several implications. Agriculture, which heavily relies on monsoon rains, faces potential disruptions in the sowing calendar, especially for key Kharif crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds. Farmers in regions such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are concerned about sowing delays, which could shorten the growing season and reduce yields. Additionally, prolonged dry spells are causing water reservoirs in central and northern India to deplete, affecting irrigation and drinking water supplies.

The IMD has forecast that the monsoon will advance into more parts of central and eastern India between June 12 and 18. While the IMD projects above-normal rainfall for India as a whole in 2025, regional disparities are expected. Above-normal rains have been recorded in parts of Maharashtra and the western coast, while below-normal rainfall is expected in northeast India, potentially leading to water shortages and lower crop yields in that region.

Even with normal total rainfall, the timing and distribution of the rains are critical. Uneven spatial or temporal distribution can negatively impact crops, water availability, and livelihoods. The combination of heat and high humidity in some regions is also increasing electricity demand for cooling, straining the power supply.

Looking ahead, a revival of monsoon activity is anticipated with the potential development of a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to move into the Indian basin by mid-June, which could support the second surge of the monsoon and push its northward progression into northern India. Despite the current slowdown, the IMD remains optimistic, advising farmers to stay informed and follow agro-meteorological advisories to manage their harvests effectively.