Bitcoin's price has experienced significant volatility and growth throughout its history, and recent analysis suggests that a substantial surge could be on the horizon. According to historical trends and technical indicators, Bitcoin may reach $330,000 before the current bull market concludes. This projection is based on several factors, including the AVIV Ratio, power law models, and observations of over-the-counter (OTC) Bitcoin holdings.
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric comparing Bitcoin's active capitalization to its total invested capitalization. Historically, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ mean deviation, it has signaled a cycle top. Looking back, Bitcoin was around $1,200 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017, and approximately $69,000 in 2021 when the AVIV Ratio reached these peaks. Currently, the AVIV Ratio remains below these past peak levels, suggesting that Bitcoin has room to climb, potentially reaching at least $330,000 before the cycle top condition is met. The AVIV Ratio provides a unique perspective on market dynamics by reflecting investor activity versus locked-in value. A spike in the ratio indicates heightened trading or profit-taking, often preceding major price movements.
Adding to this analysis, data from CryptoQuant indicates a notable shift in Bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin held on OTC desks has decreased from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests that large investors are moving their holdings off exchanges, potentially signaling reduced selling pressure or a strategic move toward long-term storage. Accumulation by institutional players such as Strategy, Metaplanet, and BlackRock further supports this narrative.
Another study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With supports the $330,000 price target. With's analysis uses a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model (R²=0.96). This model projects that Bitcoin's price could reach between $220,000 and $330,000 in this cycle. The model suggests that Bitcoin's price follows a predictable pattern over time, differing from the exponential growth models often applied to stocks and equities. Currently trading around $103,000, Bitcoin would need to surge significantly to reach these levels, aligning with historical patterns where prices have doubled or tripled above the power law trendline during peak bullish phases.
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle tied to halving events, which occur approximately every four years. A halving event reduces the reward miners receive for mining new blocks, effectively slowing the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. This decreased supply, combined with sustained or increased demand, has historically led to significant price increases. The most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024, which saw the block reward shrink from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins, potentially setting the stage for further price appreciation.
However, it's also important to consider other factors and potential challenges. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by various elements, including regulatory developments, technological advancements, and overall market sentiment. Integrating these diverse factors remains a challenge for accurate price prediction.
Despite these complexities, the convergence of technical analysis, historical trends, and on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to reach significantly higher prices in the current bull market cycle.
