Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana Hoosiers' new quarterback, is generating significant buzz as a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. After transferring from Cal, where he had a breakout season in 2024, Mendoza has quickly captured the attention of NFL scouts and analysts. His combination of size, arm strength, and mobility, coupled with Indiana's revamped football program under Coach Curt Cignetti, has fueled projections of Mendoza as a top prospect.

Several analysts have already placed Mendoza in the first round of their way-too-early 2026 mock drafts. Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to select Mendoza with the No. 14 overall pick. Dane Brugler of The Athletic projects Mendoza going No. 27 overall to the Los Angeles Rams. ESPN's experts rank Mendoza as a top-five quarterback prospect for the 2026 draft.

Standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing 225 pounds, Mendoza possesses the ideal build that NFL teams seek in a quarterback. He has a quick release, makes fast decisions, and has the arm talent to deliver the ball to all areas of the field. Scouts have praised his ability to throw back-shoulder fades with touch, timing, and power. Mendoza also demonstrates toughness in the pocket, often delivering the ball while facing pressure. He made strides in reducing interceptions in 2024, showcasing improved decision-making. Furthermore, Mendoza is comfortable outside the pocket and displays good instincts when on the move.

Mendoza's strengths extend to his accuracy and ball placement. He demonstrates exceptional accuracy in the short game, with excellent on-target percentage over the middle. His ability to place the ball effectively allows receivers to make plays. Mendoza is also adept at identifying and attacking advantageous coverage situations.

Despite the positive evaluations, some scouts have identified areas for improvement. One concern is Mendoza's occasional impatience in the pocket, sometimes bailing out too early or predetermining throws before fully assessing the defensive picture. There are some concerns regarding his accuracy when he is moved from his spot and his over-reliance on his arm strength, which can negatively affect his location control. Some have also noted that he can be tunnel-visioned and drop his eyes when the pass rush is closing in, losing his downfield focus.

Mendoza transferred to Indiana to play in Curt Cignetti's Air Raid offense. Cignetti has a track record of developing quarterbacks, and Mendoza is expected to thrive in this system. With a strong receiving corps, including NFL prospect Elijah Sarratt, Mendoza has the potential to elevate both the Hoosiers and his own draft stock.

Overall, Fernando Mendoza is considered a highly intriguing prospect with the potential to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. His physical attributes, arm talent, and potential fit in Indiana's offense make him a player to watch. While he has areas to refine, Mendoza's strengths and the environment he's entering at Indiana provide a favorable outlook for his development and future NFL prospects.