Indian stock market indices, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, are anticipated to begin trading on July 14, 2025, on a subdued note, influenced by mixed cues from global markets.

Global Market Influences:

• Negative Cues: European indices, including the DAX and CAC 40, experienced declines exceeding 1% on the Friday prior to July 14. Additionally, U.S. futures displayed marginally negative trends, potentially indicating continued global uncertainty and a restrained appetite for risk.
• Asian Markets: Asian-Pacific markets began the week cautiously, reacting to escalating trade tensions.
• US Tariffs: The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico by the U.S. sparked concerns about potential escalations in trade disputes. Leaders from the EU and Mexico have expressed intentions to negotiate with the U.S. to reach a compromise and reduce tariff rates.
• Positive Cues: Singapore's economy demonstrated strong growth, with second-quarter GDP expanding by 4.3% year-on-year, surpassing the previous quarter's growth and forecasts.

Domestic Market Trends:

• Gift Nifty: The Gift Nifty was trading lower, suggesting a cautious opening for Indian equities.
• Recent Performance: On the Friday prior, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex fell over 0.8%. The Nifty 50 closed at 25,149.85, down 0.81%, with 39 constituents declining and only 11 advancing. The Sensex closed at 82,500.47, a decline of 0.83%.
• Foreign and Domestic Investment: Foreign investors have withdrawn a significant amount in July, but strong domestic institutional investor (DII) inflows may offer some stabilization to the markets.
• Technical Analysis: According to technical research, as long as the Sensex remains below 83,000, weak sentiment is expected to continue, potentially leading to a slip towards 82,100 and further down to 81,500-81,100. If the Sensex trades above 83,000, market sentiment could improve, potentially driving it towards 83,700-84,000. The Nifty 50 has formed a bearish structure, indicating a likelihood of continued correction. Breaching support levels, the short-term trend for Nifty 50 has turned bearish, with the next support range seen at 24,900-25,000.

Sectoral Analysis:

• IT Sector Weakness: The Nifty IT index experienced a significant decline due to broad-based weakness in major tech stocks, following a tepid earnings report from TCS. TCS shares dropped despite a rise in net profit, as revenue growth underwhelmed due to various factors, including the phasing out of a BSNL contract and global economic pressures.
• Banking Sector Cautious: The NIFTY BANK index also declined, with selling pressure outweighing gains in select stocks.
• FMCG and Pharma: Bucking the overall trend, FMCG and Pharma sectors showed gains.

Key Factors to Watch:

• Earnings Season: Company-specific earnings reports are expected to heavily influence market momentum.
• Global Cues: Monitoring global market trends and international trade relations will be crucial.
• Inflation Data: India's June WPI and CPI inflation data will likely influence market direction. Economists expect CPI-based retail inflation to remain below the Reserve Bank of India's target, potentially allowing the central bank to focus on growth.
• Technical Levels: Keep an eye on the support and resistance levels for both Nifty 50 and Sensex.

Expert Recommendations:

• One analyst suggests that the Indian stock market sentiment has turned weak, with Nifty 50 slipping below crucial support levels. A stock-specific approach is recommended, focusing on stocks with strong technical charts.

Overall Market Sentiment:

Market sentiment appears cautious, influenced by global uncertainties, disappointing earnings in some sectors, and technical indicators suggesting a potential for further correction. Investors are likely awaiting fresh cues and developments to determine the next market trend.