NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has issued a warning that India, along with China and Brazil, could face "severe secondary sanctions" if they continue to conduct business with Russia. This announcement follows a statement by U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened "biting" secondary tariffs of 100% on buyers of Russian exports unless a peace agreement is reached in the Russia-Ukraine war within 50 days.
Rutte's comments, made during a meeting with American senators in Congress, underscore the growing pressure on countries to reduce their economic ties with Moscow. He urged India, China, and Brazil to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in serious peace talks with Ukraine. "My encouragement to these three countries, particularly, is: if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard," Rutte stated. He further added, "So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise, this will slam back on Brazil, on India, and on China in a massive way".
The potential for secondary sanctions has raised concerns in India, which has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict while continuing to import Russian oil and gas. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said earlier this month that the Indian embassy and ambassador have been in touch with Senator Graham regarding the sanctions bill and that "India will have to cross that bridge if it comes to it". Jaishankar also conveyed India's concerns and interests related to energy and security to Senator Graham.
These warnings have sparked debate about diplomatic overreach and the role of military alliances in global trade. Some analysts argue that Rutte's statement risks alienating strategic partners like India, especially since European nations continue to purchase Russian oil themselves. Despite a reduction in Europe's fossil fuel imports from Moscow, they only dropped by 1% year-on-year, raising questions about who should be "lectured on responsible trading".
India has consistently advocated for peace and has rejected pressure from military alliances, maintaining its right to make sovereign and pragmatic economic choices. However, the threat of sanctions could put a strain on India's balancing act between its relationships with the West and Russia. If secondary sanctions were to target Indian firms, it could disrupt oil supplies, raise domestic fuel prices, and hurt Indian companies engaged in global business, particularly those dependent on Western markets or banks.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the U.S. Imposing tariffs could undermine these efforts and negatively impact the U.S. economy.
As the situation develops, India's response to these challenges will be crucial in shaping its economic future and its role in the evolving global order. India's approach involves building economic resilience, finding new suppliers, promoting domestic manufacturing, and establishing backup plans in key sectors. The government's focus on self-reliance is taking on new significance in this context, as is the private sector's adjustment to potential trade disruptions.
