According to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Bitcoin is currently "smack dab in the middle" of its adoption curve, despite trading near highs around $120,000. Timmer suggests that it is still early in the broader adoption cycle by drawing parallels to the internet boom and emphasizing that Bitcoin's growth trajectory closely resembles the internet's adoption curve from past decades.

Bitcoin's Adoption Trajectory

Timmer's analysis is based on Bitcoin's wallet power curve and a demand model influenced by the internet adoption curve. He stated, "Bitcoin continues to follow both the Power Law curve of its wallets as well as my demand model based on the internet adoption curve. We are right in the middle". This suggests that Bitcoin's current price action, characterized by new highs followed by consolidation phases, reflects a maturing asset class rather than a saturated one. The upper end of Timmer's BTC model, based on the wallet power curve, estimates Bitcoin's value to be in the $200,000-$300,000 range.

While Bitcoin's network growth has slowed, the trend still aligns with the steep power curve in Timmer's adoption chart. Bitcoin's adoption trajectory remains steeper than the internet's adoption curve, signifying its rapid but maturing growth. It's important to note that Bitcoin ETFs consolidate holdings into fewer wallets, understating the wallet/address count.

Corporate and Nation-State Adoption

Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also on the rise. Data indicates that 125 public companies now hold BTC, with 46 firms adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets in Q2 2025. These companies collectively hold 847,000 BTC, valued at approximately $91 billion. Blockware Intelligence forecasts that at least 36 additional firms will adopt Bitcoin by the end of 2025, marking a 25% increase from the current 141 public companies holding the cryptocurrency. This projection is supported by a 120% surge in the adoption rate among these entities this year.

Fidelity Digital Assets predicts that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will establish strategic positions in Bitcoin. This trend is driven by the recognition of digital assets as strategic holdings and hedges against fiscal and monetary pressures. El Salvador and Bhutan are examples of countries that have seen substantial returns from Bitcoin adoption.

Factors Driving Adoption

Several factors are driving Bitcoin adoption, including:

• Growing institutional interest: Crypto digital asset investment products recently recorded a staggering $3.7 billion in weekly inflows, pushing total assets under management across crypto products to an all-time high of $211 billion, with Bitcoin-backed products accounting for $179.5 billion.
• Macroeconomic conditions: Rising liquidity, driven by potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, is historically favorable for digital asset prices.
• Technological advancements: Proposed changes to the Bitcoin protocol focus on programmability, scaling, and security, enhancing its flexibility and resilience.
• Global crypto adoption: Cryptocurrency adoption is growing globally, with lower- and middle-income countries leading in real-world usage and high-income nations advancing regulatory clarity.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the positive outlook, there are challenges and considerations to keep in mind:

• Stagflationary environment: Bitcoin's performance in a stagflationary environment will depend heavily on fiscal and monetary policy responses.
• Network security: Hashrate centralization increases the risk of threats like a 51% attack, which could compromise the network's security.
• Market volatility: Concerns exist about the long-term sustainability of debt-fueled Bitcoin strategies, with analysts warning of a potential "death spiral" for Bitcoin-heavy companies during downturns.

Despite these challenges, Fidelity's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is well-positioned for further growth and adoption. As digital asset-structured and managed products go mainstream and tokenization gains traction, investors are encouraged to recognize that they are not too late to join the digital asset movement.