Bitcoin is showing signs of strength as it rebounds to around $118,000, prompting analysts to suggest that bulls are currently "in control" of the market. This resurgence follows a period of volatility, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $122,197.00 on July 14, 2025, before fluctuating within a wide range.
Factors Driving the Bullish Momentum
Several factors are contributing to the current bullish sentiment. Improved market sentiment, increasing institutional buy-ins, and technological advancements in blockchain infrastructure are all playing a role. Regulatory clarity in major economies like the U.S. and EU is also fostering a more structured environment for crypto investments.
Global Liquidity and M2 Money Supply
Analysts point to global liquidity trends, particularly the increase in the M2 money supply, as a key driver of Bitcoin's price. The global M2 supply has surpassed $112 trillion, reversing the contraction seen after 2022 and creating a favorable environment for asset inflation. Historically, Bitcoin's price has closely followed the M2 trend, suggesting that continued expansion could lead to further valuation increases. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors has projected that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025, citing these macroeconomic tailwinds.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Adoption
Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are also significantly impacting Bitcoin's price. Citi analysts estimate that ETF flows now account for over 40% of BTC's price movements. They also highlight a strong correlation between ETF net flows and BTC returns, estimating that every $1 billion in weekly inflows adds about 3.6% to Bitcoin's price. This growing institutional adoption is a key factor in the bullish outlook.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin's immediate support level is around $115,000, with resistance near $118,500. A breakout above this resistance level could reignite bullish momentum and potentially test the July 14 high. The prevailing sentiment among leveraged participants in the derivatives market is also bullish, as indicated by positive funding rates in perpetual and futures contracts.
Expert Projections and Targets
Several analysts have offered price predictions for Bitcoin by the end of 2025. Citi projects a base-case target of $135,000, with a more optimistic outlook seeing Bitcoin surging to $199,000. Tom Lee's forecast is even more bullish, with a target range of $200,000 to $250,000. Other analysts, like Robert Kiyosaki and Arthur Hayes, have also projected prices in the $180,000 to $250,000 range.
Potential Risks and Considerations
Despite the bullish outlook, it's important to acknowledge potential risks. Weak equity markets, underperforming gold, and a fall in ETF inflows could negatively impact Bitcoin's price. Tighter monetary policy, geopolitical shocks, and regulatory disruptions could also alter Bitcoin's trajectory.
Concluding Remarks
Overall, the Bitcoin market appears to be in a strong position, with bulls currently in control. Factors such as increasing global liquidity, rising institutional adoption, and positive market sentiment are driving the price upward. While risks remain, the prevailing outlook suggests that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory in the coming months.
