A prominent BTC analyst has suggested that the era of dramatic parabolic bull markets followed by devastating bear markets in Bitcoin (BTC) may be coming to an end. This perspective is gaining traction amidst evolving market dynamics, particularly following the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States.
According to Blockware BTC analyst Mitchell Askew, Bitcoin ETFs have played a significant role in reducing volatility and reshaping market behavior. Askew noted a distinct difference in BTC's price action before and after the ETF launch in January 2024, signaling a more stable and mature market. This viewpoint is supported by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who believes reduced volatility could attract larger institutional investors and increase Bitcoin's chances of being adopted as a mainstream currency. However, Balchunas also tempered expectations by stating that the market might not experience "God Candles" anymore.
Askew predicts a future where Bitcoin steadily appreciates to $1 million over the next decade, characterized by consistent "pump" and "consolidate" phases. This contrasts sharply with the volatile boom-and-bust cycles that have historically defined the cryptocurrency's price action. The analyst anticipates a gradual climb that may "bore everyone to death along the way and shake the tourists out of their positions".
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a period of muted volatility, consolidating within a narrow range. Technical analysis indicates a potential bearish divergence, suggesting a possible correction phase. Despite this, the overall market structure remains bullish as long as key support levels hold. Some analysts observe that altcoins are recovering, with Ethereum (ETH) gaining market share. Profit-taking is also occurring, but not in a panicked manner, suggesting a healthy consolidation before another potential upward trend.
Other analysts point to Bitcoin's four-year cycle, which revolves around halving events that reduce the rate of new supply. Historically, these events have preceded major bull runs. Despite breaking records by hitting new all-time highs before the recent halving, some argue that the four-year cycle remains intact, potentially leading to a peak in 2025. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer believes Bitcoin is still closely tracking its four-year cycle. ETF analyst James Seyffart also believes that the cycle still exists but is weaker.
However, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is among those who believe the four-year cycle is fading due to ETFs and institutional inflows. Bitcoin recently broke above its new all-time highs, and if history repeats, this bull run could continue until October 20, 2025.
While some analysts anticipate a final surge that could push Bitcoin to $200,000, others caution about the risks of significant losses if timing is off. An OG whale has been selling a significant amount of BTC, contributing to recent price drops. However, if bulls can defend the bottom of the current flag pattern, a strong bounce could occur, potentially leading to a measured move towards $130,000.
Despite differing opinions on the short-term market outlook, long-term forecasts remain largely positive. Michael Saylor, for instance, projects Bitcoin could reach $21 million by 2046, representing a substantial compound annual growth rate.
Overall, the Bitcoin market in July 2025 presents a complex picture. While some argue that the traditional parabolic bull and devastating bear markets are over due to the influence of ETFs and institutional investment, others maintain that the four-year cycle is still relevant and that a peak could occur in late 2025. Technical analysis reveals mixed signals, with potential for both corrections and further upward movement. Regardless of the short-term fluctuations, many analysts and industry leaders remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential.
