The Indian stock market is bracing for a volatile period, influenced by a confluence of global and domestic factors that have shifted significantly overnight. These include developments ranging from the Gift Nifty's performance to newly imposed tariffs by the United States and the latest earnings reports from tech giant Apple.
GIFT Nifty Indicates a Gap-Down Start
The GIFT Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, serves as an early indicator of how the Indian market might perform. It is a futures contract based on the Nifty 50 Index, traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in Gujarat's GIFT City. Recent trading levels of the GIFT Nifty suggest a potential gap-down start for Indian stock market indices. On July 31, 2025, Gift Nifty was trading around 24,669, nearly 200 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, signaling a potentially weak opening for the Indian market.
This index allows foreign investors to participate in the Indian equity market, offering a convenient way to access the Nifty 50's performance from a global platform. By trading in US dollars and bypassing local regulations, the GIFT Nifty provides foreign investors with enhanced liquidity and market flexibility. It operates in two sessions, from 6:30 am to 3:40 pm and then from 4:35 pm to 2:45 am (Indian Standard Time), offering extensive trading hours.
Trump's Tariffs on Indian Goods
The announcement of new tariffs on Indian goods by former U.S. President Donald Trump is a significant factor impacting market sentiment. Effective August 1, 2025, a 25% tariff has been imposed on goods imported from India into the United States. This move has raised concerns about increased trade barriers and potential retaliatory measures, contributing to uncertainty in the Indian stock market.
These tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from various countries, are expected to test global alliances and economies. India's exports to the U.S. will face a 25% rate, Taiwan's 20%, and South Africa's 30%. Some of the world's poorest countries have been hit with punitive rates, including Syria (41%), Laos and Myanmar (40%), Libya (30%), Iraq (35%), and Sri Lanka (20%). Sectors like textiles, auto component manufacturers, and shrimp feed exporters may be particularly affected.
Apple's Q3 Results
Apple's financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending June 28, 2025, have also influenced market dynamics. The company reported a 10% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $94.0 billion, and diluted earnings per share of $1.57, a 12% increase year-over-year. iPhone sales rose 13% to $44.58 billion, exceeding estimates of $40.22 billion. Apple's sales in Greater China increased to $15.37 billion from $14.73 billion a year earlier. The services segment, including Apple Pay and the App Store, increased 13% year-on-year to $27.42 billion.
These results have boosted investor confidence in the technology sector. Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, noted double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac, and Services across all geographic segments. Apple's board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.26 per share, payable on August 14, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 11, 2025.
Other Influencing Factors
Broader market cues include the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy and mixed performances in Asian markets. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have decreased following recent comments. Asian markets traded mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi indices showing gains while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures indicated a weaker opening.
Market Outlook
The Indian stock market is expected to remain in consolidation mode, with stock-specific actions anticipated as the earnings season progresses. Analysts advise caution and hedging strategies amidst expected volatile swings, anticipating range-bound movement between 24,600 and 25,000.
