Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing increased profit-taking as it approaches the $4,300 mark, a level not seen since 2021. This resurgence has pushed nearly 97% of ETH addresses into a profitable position, meaning their acquisition costs are below the current market rate.
The recent price surge is attributed to strong buying momentum and renewed confidence from large investors, with ETH up 43% over the past month. This has led to a significant shift in on-chain behavior, as more investors realize gains, signaling a market in active profit-taking. However, the overall profit realization remains lower than the peak daily profit-taking average from the previous month when ETH traded near $3,500.
Short-term traders are playing a crucial role in this rally. Data indicates that Ethereum's 7-day SMA Realized Profits reached $771 million per day in July before easing to $553 million in recent weeks. This trend is primarily driven by addresses holding ETH for under six months, suggesting active capital rotation rather than long-term accumulation. Despite this increased activity, the market has not reached profit saturation, which is often seen before major market tops.
Technical analysis indicates a potential continuation of the upward trend. Ethereum broke above a long-standing resistance level of $4,100, signaling a favorable outlook for further gains. Analyst Cas Abbe described this breakout as a "turning point" for Ethereum, anticipating new institutional demand and a surge toward $7,000 this year. Chart patterns support this outlook, with Ethereum breaking above a multi-year symmetrical triangle and technical targets ranging from $6,000 to $8,000.
However, some analysts caution that this rally may have an expiration date. Crypto trader Orbion suggests that Ethereum's current position is in the Optimism and Ethereum dominance phase, with a potential climb to the Market Peak/Euphoria phase by the end of October 2025. Drawing parallels to similar patterns in 2017 and 2021, Orbion plans to sell his ETH holdings by October 31, anticipating a downturn.
Despite potential pullbacks, the overall trajectory for Ethereum remains positive. Strong institutional inflows, healthy on-chain activity, and robust ETF demand support Ethereum's stability. Renewed interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) and layer-2 scaling solutions is also driving higher transaction volumes and staking participation.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast that ETH could challenge $7,000 or higher within the next 12–18 months, particularly if DeFi, NFTs, and tokenized real-world assets achieve mainstream adoption. Some even project that ETH could reach $12,000 by August 2025, contingent upon sustained institutional interest, consistent ETF inflows, and continued network growth. Binance users predict ETH to reach $5,484.88 in the next 5 years.
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $4,285, approximately 12.7% below its all-time high of $4,828. The cryptocurrency's market capitalization is approximately $511.49 billion, recently hitting $520 billion. With strong fundamentals and an expanding ecosystem, Ethereum remains a central pillar of the digital economy.
