Indian stock market indicators, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, are expected to open higher on August 18, 2025, following positive global cues and domestic developments. Gift Nifty trends suggest a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark index.

Global and Domestic Factors Influencing the Market

Several factors are likely to influence the Indian stock market on August 18, 2025:

• Trump-Putin Meeting: The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is viewed as a positive development, even without specific outcomes. The agreement to continue talks has eased tensions, which global stock markets are expected to welcome. The absence of negative surprises, such as new tariffs or sanctions, provides a sense of relief to investors.
• GST Reforms: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of upcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms during his Independence Day speech is expected to boost investor sentiment and consumption. The proposed reforms, including potential rate reductions, are anticipated to drive consumption-led growth in sectors like FMCG, consumer durables, and agriculture.
• S&P Global Rating Upgrade: S&P Global upgraded India's sovereign credit rating from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook. This upgrade reflects global confidence in India's economic trajectory and is a positive signal for foreign investors.
• Foreign Fund Flows: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been selling, but Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been absorbing the pressure. The direction of foreign fund flows will likely play a crucial role in setting the tone for the domestic equity market.
• Crude Oil Prices: Crude oil prices cooled due to the Trump-Putin meeting. Rising output from the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe, coupled with the end of peak summer demand, has led to a fall in benchmark oil prices.

Market Expectations and Technical Outlook

• Positive Opening: The Indian stock market is expected to have a positive opening, with the Gift Nifty indicating a gap-up start.
• Nifty 50: Nifty 50 closed at 24,631.30 on the previous trading session. It is expected to maintain a bullish tone as long as it stays above the key support level of 24,337. Immediate resistance is seen at 24,660 and 24,850, and a breakout above 24,750 could lead to a rally towards 25,000.
  • Immediate support is at the 100-DMA of 24,575, with crucial support at 24,350.
  • A decisive break above the 24,700-24,800 resistance zone could pave the way towards 25,000.
• Sensex: Sensex closed at 80,597.66 in the previous session. Support is expected around 80,300, and as long as it trades above this level, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. Immediate resistance is at 80,900, and a breakout above this level could push the index towards 81,500-81,800.
  • However, a break below 80,300 could turn the market sentiment negative, potentially leading to a retest of levels around 79,800.
• Cautious Optimism: While the overall sentiment is positive, a cautious undertone prevails. Market participants will likely remain watchful of global tensions and policy changes.
• Trading Strategy: Analysts suggest a "buy on dips" strategy for Nifty, with strong support at 24,300 and 24,000.

Expert Opinions

• Kranthi Bathini, Director-Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, believes that the Trump-Putin meeting is a positive development and global stock markets will react favorably.
• Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, expects the Indian stock market to remain unaffected by the lack of a breakthrough on Trump's tariffs, with the focus shifting to domestic triggers like GST reforms.
• Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities, expects 80,300 to act as a key support zone for Sensex.
• Market expert Santosh Meena said that the Nifty has established a strong base at 24,350 and formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart.
• Avinash Gorakshkar stated that the Indian stock market might have a positive opening, but the Nifty 50 index may find it tough to break above the 24,800 hurdle.

Overall Market Sentiment

Overall, the Indian stock market is expected to react positively on August 18, 2025, driven by a combination of global and domestic factors. The Trump-Putin meeting has eased geopolitical tensions, while the proposed GST reforms and the S&P Global rating upgrade have boosted investor confidence. However, market participants are advised to remain cautious and monitor global cues and policy changes. Technical analysis suggests that the Nifty and Sensex are likely to face resistance at 24,800 and 80,900, respectively, while support levels are expected around 24,300 and 80,300.