Bitcoin is currently facing a critical test, hovering near the $118,000 resistance level, a zone that traders are closely watching to determine the cryptocurrency's next major move. After a rally, Bitcoin's price has stalled at this level, prompting analysts to weigh the potential for a continued surge versus a possible correction.

Resistance at $118,000

The $118,000 mark represents a significant hurdle for Bitcoin. Several analysts have pointed out that a failure to break through this resistance could signal a deeper pullback. CasiTrades, a market analyst, suggests that a decline from this range might indicate that Bitcoin has already reached its peak. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has tested the 0.5 retracement level near $116,000 without showing the RSI exhaustion typically expected at a major turning point, leaving room for a potential push towards the 0.618 retracement zone, aligning with the $118,000 level.

Conversely, a successful break above $122,000 would invalidate the correction theory and potentially propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs, sparking fresh bullish momentum. Arthur Hayes advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective, emphasizing that Bitcoin's volatility benefits patient investors who focus on long-term gains rather than quick profits.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand

Despite the resistance, there is a strong argument that Bitcoin ETFs could drive the price higher. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen substantial inflows, signaling robust institutional demand. On September 10 and 11, net inflows exceeded 9,700 BTC, a pattern similar to occurrences in April and June, where market rallies coincided with sudden increases in ETF inflows. This influx of capital allows traditional and institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin without directly purchasing and storing it. The approval and launch of Bitcoin ETFs can increase demand and attract institutional investors, driving up the price of Bitcoin.

Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan noted strong institutional demand is growing. Spot BTC exchange-traded funds recorded $642.35 million in inflows on a recent Friday, which propelled weekly inflows to $2.34 billion. Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, believes continued ETF inflows could push BTC past its all-time high, with liquidity tightening as institutions rotate back into the asset.

Potential Price Targets and Predictions

If Bitcoin overcomes the $118,000 resistance, analysts are eyeing $120,000 as the next resistance, followed by more ambitious targets of $140,000 if the inflow streak persists. Some traders are giving Bitcoin an 89% probability of hitting $130,000–$140,000 before year-end.

Various sources offer differing Bitcoin price predictions for the coming years:

• 2025: Predictions range from $120,000 to $150,000, with some models showing $180,000 by year-end. One forecast suggests Bitcoin could trade between $116,460 and $128,868 this week, potentially reaching $128,868 by September 22, 2025. Another predicts an average annualized price of $127,830.
• 2026: Forecasts suggest a trading channel between $74,425 and $138,245, with an average price of $101,598. Binance users predict the BTC price will reach $121,207.56.
• 2028: One prediction indicates a possible uptrend, with an expected price of $193,870, potentially oscillating between $57,439 in January and $277,836 in December.

Factors to Consider

While ETF inflows and positive market sentiment could drive Bitcoin's price higher, several factors could lead to a correction:

• Market Volatility: Bitcoin is known for its high price volatility, which can directly impact the value of Bitcoin ETFs.
• Regulatory Changes: Regulatory changes and negative news can affect the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, the value of Bitcoin ETFs.
• Federal Reserve Decisions: Investors are closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, which could lead to short-term dips before longer-term gains.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's ability to overcome the $118,000 resistance will be crucial in determining its short-term trajectory. While a breakthrough could lead to new all-time highs, a rejection may signal a deeper correction. The influence of Bitcoin ETFs and the continued institutional interest remain significant factors that could push the price higher.