The recently signed strategic mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has triggered concerns in India, with the Congress party voicing strong criticism and describing it as a threat to India's national security. The agreement, signed in Riyadh by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, stipulates that any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both, necessitating a joint response. This has led to India carefully assessing the implications of the pact for its own security and regional stability.

Key Aspects of the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact:

• Mutual Defence Commitment: The core of the agreement lies in the commitment that an attack on either Saudi Arabia or Pakistan will be treated as an attack on both. This mirrors collective defense clauses found in formal alliances.
• Formalizing a Long-Standing Relationship: The pact formalizes a security relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that has existed for decades. Pakistan has historically provided security assistance to Saudi Arabia, including stationing troops and officers in the Kingdom.
• Timing and Context: The agreement was signed shortly after an Israeli airstrike on Doha, Qatar, which raised concerns among Gulf states about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. This pact can be seen as Saudi Arabia diversifying its security partnerships.
• Military Endorsement: The presence of Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, at the signing ceremony indicates the Pakistani military's strong support for the agreement.

Indian Concerns and Reactions:

• Strategic Implications: India is concerned that the pact could embolden Pakistan, potentially leading to a harder stance on issues such as Kashmir, terrorism, and water rights. There are fears that Saudi financial support could strengthen Pakistan's military capabilities.
• Diplomatic Balancing Act: India finds itself in a difficult diplomatic position, as it has strong ties with both Saudi Arabia and Israel, while also having a long-standing conflict with Pakistan.
• Official Response: India's Ministry of External Affairs has stated that it will study the implications of the pact for India's national security and regional stability. The government has affirmed its commitment to protecting India's national interests.
• Potential Responses: India is likely to pursue closer defense cooperation with Israel, seek new military procurements, and engage in back-channel diplomacy with Gulf states to safeguard its interests.

Wider Regional Implications:

• Impact on Israel: The inclusion of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities introduces a new deterrent against Israeli military actions in the region.
• China's Role: The pact presents an opportunity for China to deepen its influence with two key allies, potentially sidelining the U.S..
• US Credibility: The agreement raises questions about the U.S.'s credibility as a security guarantor in the Gulf.

Analysis:

The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact represents a significant development in the region's geopolitics. While it formalizes a long-standing security relationship, it also introduces new complexities and risks for India. The pact could embolden Pakistan, potentially leading to increased tensions with India. Moreover, it places India in a delicate diplomatic position, requiring it to carefully balance its relationships with Saudi Arabia and other key players in the region.

Despite the defense alignment with Islamabad, a Saudi official stated that Riyadh's relationship with India remained strong and that they will continue to grow this relationship.