China has emerged as a major buyer of Indian rapeseed meal during April-August 2025, driven by a confluence of factors including trade dynamics and competitive pricing. This surge in demand from China is reshaping India's rapeseed meal export landscape and impacting both countries' agricultural sectors.

The primary catalyst for this increased demand is China's imposition of a 100% retaliatory tariff on canola meal and oil imports from Canada, effective March 20, 2025. This tariff significantly altered the trade landscape, prompting Chinese buyers to seek alternative sources for rapeseed meal, a crucial component of animal feed. India, with its substantial rapeseed production and ample stockpiles, emerged as a viable alternative.

Prior to this shift, India, the world's third-largest rapeseed producer, faced challenges in exporting significant quantities of rapeseed meal to China due to price competitiveness. In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of rapeseed meal from Canada, along with substantial quantities from the United Arab Emirates and Russia, while India accounted for a mere fraction of these imports.

However, the imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola dramatically changed the equation. Indian rapeseed meal became significantly more competitive, with prices around $202 per ton (FOB) compared to approximately $300 for supplies from the European Union. This price advantage fueled a surge in Chinese demand, with monthly purchases exceeding 50,000 tons.

The impact on India's rapeseed meal exports is substantial. Industry experts project that India's rapeseed meal exports to China could reach a record 500,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year (starting in April), a significant increase from the 60,759 tons exported in the previous year. In just the first two months of the 2025/26 marketing year, India had already shipped 113,836 tons to China. This surge in exports is not only benefiting Indian exporters but also easing pressure on domestic rapeseed prices, as the increased demand helps to reduce the country's surplus stocks. Moreover, increased rapeseed crushing is improving the supply of rapeseed oil within India.

While China's increased reliance on Indian rapeseed meal is a direct consequence of the tariffs on Canadian canola, it also reflects a broader trend of diversifying import sources and ensuring stable supplies of essential agricultural commodities. For India, this presents a significant opportunity to strengthen its position in the global rapeseed meal market and enhance its agricultural exports.

Traditionally, South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam have been the primary destinations for Indian rapeseed meal exports. However, with China's emergence as a major buyer, the export landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, potentially leading to a more balanced and diversified export portfolio for India.