Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" poignantly illustrated the grim reality that once the nuclear threshold is crossed, proliferation becomes almost inevitable. The world witnessed this as the Soviet Union, Britain, France, and China followed the United States in developing nuclear weapons. India, decades later, joined this list. Now, with former US President Donald Trump's recent announcement that the United States would resume nuclear weapons testing, the world once again faces the specter of a renewed nuclear arms race.

On October 30, 2025, Trump declared that the U.S. would "immediately" restart nuclear weapons testing, a move seen as essential to keep pace with Russia and China. This decision breaks a 33-year moratorium on such tests and has triggered widespread concern. While U.S. officials have attempted to downplay the situation, stating that any planned tests would be "noncritical," the symbolic impact of even considering explosive tests has reverberated across the globe. Russia has already indicated that it would follow suit if the U.S. proceeds with testing.

The implications of a renewed nuclear arms race are far-reaching. Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, warned that Trump's announcement could "trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by U.S. adversaries and blow apart the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)". Military analyst Teng Jianqun suggests that Trump's motivation extends beyond merely ensuring U.S. dominance; he aims to revitalize the U.S. nuclear industry as an economic driver. This could lead to a domino effect, pushing more countries toward nuclear armament and undermining existing arms control frameworks.

For India, this situation presents a complex dilemma. As a declared nuclear power with a "no-first use" (NFU) policy, India has long maintained a posture of "credible minimum deterrence". This policy is based on possessing enough nuclear weapons to deter potential adversaries without initiating a nuclear conflict. As of 2025, India is estimated to have around 180 nuclear warheads. India has a nuclear triad, consisting of land-based missiles, aircraft, and sea-based assets.

However, the evolving global security landscape may compel India to re-evaluate its nuclear strategy. China's growing nuclear arsenal and its close relationship with Pakistan, India's primary security concern, add to the complexity. Some experts believe that India needs to maintain a qualitative edge in its nuclear capabilities to deter potential threats.

Should India respond to a renewed arms race by increasing its nuclear arsenal or resuming nuclear testing? There are several factors to consider.

• The "No First Use" Policy: India has long adhered to a NFU policy, but some officials have questioned this stance, suggesting a potential shift depending on circumstances. A major attack against India, or Indian forces, involving biological or chemical weapons could trigger a review of this policy.
• Credible Minimum Deterrence: India's nuclear doctrine emphasizes maintaining a credible minimum deterrent. This requires a continuous assessment of its capabilities relative to potential adversaries. An increase in nuclear activity by other nations may necessitate an expansion or modernization of India's arsenal.
• Treaties and Agreements: India has not signed the NPT or the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), viewing them as discriminatory. However, it is a member of three multilateral export control regimes. Resuming nuclear testing could jeopardize its standing in these groups and potentially lead to sanctions. The 123 Agreement between the U.S. and India, which allows India to test in the face of a "changed security environment," may also be at risk.
• Regional Stability: Any decision by India to increase its nuclear activity could trigger a response from Pakistan, potentially escalating tensions in the region.
• Technological Advancement: Instead of explosive testing, India could focus on advanced computer simulations and sub-critical testing to validate new designs.

Ultimately, India's decision on whether to join a new nuclear arms race will depend on a careful assessment of its strategic interests, regional security dynamics, and commitment to global non-proliferation efforts. While there are arguments for increasing its nuclear capabilities to maintain deterrence, the potential costs and risks associated with such a move must be carefully weighed. A measured approach, focused on technological advancement and strategic diplomacy, may be the most prudent path forward for India in this uncertain environment.