Following the death sentence handed down to former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) in Dhaka, India faces a complex and sensitive situation with several options, each carrying its own set of implications. The ICT, a domestic war crimes court in Bangladesh, sentenced Hasina in absentia after a trial regarding her role in the deadly crackdown on student-led protests in 2024.
One of the most immediate and pressing issues is the question of Hasina's extradition. Since fleeing Bangladesh in August of last year, she has been residing in India under the protection of the Indian government, which has so far ignored requests for her extradition. The interim government in Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has formally requested her return to face justice. However, India is highly unlikely to comply with this request.
Several factors contribute to India's reluctance. Firstly, Hasina and her family have historically maintained close ties with both the ruling party and the opposition in India. Secondly, India recognizes the potential for political motivation behind the charges against Hasina. According to the extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh, extradition can be refused if the offense is deemed to be of a political nature. Finally, extraditing Hasina could be seen as a betrayal of a trusted ally and could destabilize the region.
If India declines to extradite Hasina, as is widely expected, it risks straining its relationship with the current administration in Bangladesh. To mitigate this, India could employ several strategies. One approach is to maintain open channels of communication with Dhaka, emphasizing its commitment to the well-being of the Bangladeshi people and its desire for continued cooperation on various fronts. India's Ministry of External Affairs has already issued a cautious statement affirming its commitment to peace, democracy, inclusion, and stability in Bangladesh.
Another option involves quietly supporting elements within Bangladesh that favor closer ties with India. This could include political parties, civil society organizations, or influential individuals who understand the strategic importance of the relationship. However, this approach would need to be handled with utmost discretion to avoid accusations of interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs.
A third option is to focus on strengthening economic and cultural ties with Bangladesh. By increasing trade, investment, and people-to-people exchanges, India can demonstrate its long-term commitment to the country's prosperity and stability, regardless of the political situation. This could help to build goodwill and counter any negative perceptions arising from the extradition issue.
The situation is further complicated by the growing presence of Pakistan in Bangladesh, which has increased since Hasina's departure. India views this development with concern, as it could undermine its regional influence and create new security challenges. Therefore, India needs to carefully calibrate its response to the Hasina situation in a way that does not inadvertently push Bangladesh further into Pakistan's orbit.
Ultimately, India's options are limited and fraught with risk. However, by carefully balancing its strategic interests, historical ties, and commitment to democratic values, India can navigate this challenging situation and work towards maintaining a stable and productive relationship with Bangladesh. The situation demands deft diplomacy, strategic foresight, and a commitment to long-term stability in the region.
