Bitcoin's recent tumble into bear market territory has sparked concern, but some analysts suggest that a potentially positive outcome could be in store for the cryptocurrency by the end of 2025. After reaching a high of around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has since plummeted 27% to approximately $92,000 as of November 18, marking the seventh time in the past five years that it has entered a bear market. A bear market is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more from a recent high.
Several factors have contributed to this downturn, including economic uncertainty and a rotation away from risk assets like cryptocurrencies and growth stocks. Concerns about the economy and a weakening job market have further exacerbated the situation. Despite these challenges, historical data and expert analysis offer a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin's year-end performance.
Examining past Bitcoin bear markets reveals some interesting trends. Following its first close in bear market territory, Bitcoin has historically returned an average of 6% over the next six months and 1% over the next year. While this suggests muted performance in the short term, other factors could influence a more positive outcome.
Leshka, a market expert, has identified critical demand zones between $40,700 and $47,500 that could take shape throughout 2026. Although this indicates a potential further drop of 47% to 54% from current values, Leshka remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, suggesting that if these price targets are met, Bitcoin could rebound dramatically, potentially reaching new all-time highs of around $150,000 by 2027.
Another analyst, Crypto Feras, suggests that the recent rebound might represent a final bear trap before a more prolonged downturn. Feras believes Bitcoin will remain in a bear market as long as it trades below its weekly MA50 and emphasizes that it is premature to label Bitcoin's current phase as anything but bearish until Bitcoin reclaims this important moving average.
Despite the current bearish sentiment, it's important to consider the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by companies and institutional investors. This growing mainstream acceptance could provide a cushion against further price declines and potentially drive demand in the long run.
Furthermore, some analysts believe that Bitcoin's price movement is now more dependent on global market conditions than on its usual supply cycles. Strong new inflows could lift it toward $100,000-$120,000 levels, but without renewed demand, the market risks losing momentum.
While the immediate future may seem uncertain, Bitcoin's history of volatility suggests that significant price swings are not uncommon. Whether Bitcoin can defy historical trends and deliver a positive year-end outcome remains to be seen. Investors should closely monitor market conditions, analyze expert opinions, and make informed decisions based on their individual risk tolerance and investment goals.
