Ether (ETH) has experienced a significant downturn, plummeting to $2,625 on Friday, November 21, 2025, a level not seen since July. This sharp 15% drop between Wednesday and Friday wiped out $460 million in leveraged bullish positions within two days. The decline extends to a substantial 47% from its all-time high on August 24.
Despite the current bearish trend, data from Ether futures markets suggests a potential rebound to $3,200. Although demand from ETH bulls remains largely absent in derivatives markets, there's a slow shift in sentiment towards a possible recovery.
The annualized funding rate on ETH perpetual futures settled near 6% on Friday, a rise from 4% the previous week. In balanced market conditions, this indicator typically fluctuates between 6% and 12% to cover capital costs. While not yet indicative of a fully bullish setup, ETH futures have demonstrated some resilience despite increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Recent data from the U.S. indicates rising economic stress. A University of Michigan survey revealed that 69% of consumers anticipate increased unemployment in the coming year, more than double the level from a year ago. Joanne Hsu, the director of the consumer survey, noted that concerns about the cost of living and income are dominating consumer views of the economy nationwide. Echoing these concerns, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker mentioned during an earnings call on Tuesday that the company is observing "softer engagement in larger discretionary projects," primarily due to the ongoing weakness in the housing market. Decker added that housing turnover, as a proportion of total available supply, has neared a 40-year low, with home prices beginning to adjust.
Adding to the cautious sentiment surrounding Ether, there have been nine consecutive sessions of net outflows in spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with approximately $1.33 billion exiting these ETFs.
However, despite the recent price drop, key takeaways suggest that large traders are increasing their long exposure as sentiment stabilizes, even amidst broader market weaknesses. Public companies with significant ETH reserves continue to trade at discounts, reflecting investors' lack of conviction in a near-term recovery. These stocks currently trade at discounts of 16% or more relative to their ETH holdings, underscoring investor hesitancy.
From a derivatives perspective, whales and market makers are increasingly viewing $2,650 as a potential bottom. Renewed inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs and clearer signals of a less restrictive monetary policy are likely necessary for a sustained bullish conviction and a potential return to $3,200, which may take several weeks.
