Indian stock market investors are keenly awaiting the release of the Q2 GDP estimates for FY 2025-26 by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on November 28, 2025. The data, which will reveal the economic performance for the July-September quarter, is expected to significantly influence market sentiment in the coming days.
Market analysts anticipate a robust growth figure, with projections hovering between 7% and 7.5%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also projected a growth of close to 7%, with several institutional forecasts aligning within a similar range. To provide context, the Indian economy grew by 5.6% in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the real GDP at constant prices was ₹47.89 lakh crore, compared to ₹44.42 lakh crore in the same period of FY 2024-25. The real GDP for the second quarter of FY24 was 7.8% higher than in the same quarter of FY23.
Several factors are believed to be contributing to this strong growth. According to Robin Arya, investment manager on smallcase and Founder at GoalFi, private consumption and services are benefiting from benign inflation, steady real income growth, and a stronger rural backdrop due to supportive monsoons. Public capital expenditure remains a crucial driver, while manufacturing is experiencing a cyclical boost from inventories and festive demand. However, external demand and goods exports continue to be a fluctuating factor.
Experts suggest that the risk-reward balance surrounding the upcoming GDP print leans towards a "meet or marginal miss" scenario, rather than a substantial positive surprise. Any potential downside compared to the higher end of expectations is more likely to stem from weaker nominal GDP, soft patches in private capital expenditure, and global trade headwinds, rather than a collapse in domestic demand.
The Q2 GDP data will be a crucial trigger, providing clarity on the pace of economic activity between July and September. Industrial production data, which has shown early signs of stabilization, will also be closely monitored to confirm sustained momentum in manufacturing and consumption. Investors will also be keeping a close watch on trade developments and economic data. Foreign fund flows remain another key variable. Overseas investors have been reducing their exposure to Indian equities in recent weeks, although the pace of selling has moderated slightly.
Last week, the Nifty and Sensex closed with gains of 0.68% and 0.50% respectively, supported by strong corporate earnings, easing inflation, and steady optimism surrounding India-US trade discussions. The IT sector emerged as the top weekly gainer, while auto and services sectors also showed consistent buying interest. However, broader markets lagged, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 falling 0.76% and 2.2% respectively. This indicates that investors are currently favoring companies with clear earnings visibility, as global uncertainty keeps risk appetite in check.
Looking ahead, analysts advise investors to maintain a balanced approach, giving preference to sectors with visible earnings traction and renewed interest, such as banking, auto, IT, and consumption. They also suggest exercising caution around major macro releases and adopting a buy-on-dips strategy near established support levels. Overall, a GDP print around the 7% mark is expected to reinforce the narrative of India as one of the fastest-growing large economies, while keeping the RBI on track.
