Here's a look at ten key factors influencing the Indian stock market as of November 25, 2025:
1. GIFT Nifty Signals Positive Start:
GIFT Nifty, an index that tracks the performance of the Nifty 50 but is traded internationally, indicates a potentially positive opening for the Indian stock market. On November 25, 2025, GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded higher by 18.5 points, or 0.07 per cent, at 25,984, suggesting a muted start for Dalal Street. GIFT Nifty is a USD-denominated derivatives contract (futures) based on the Nifty 50 index and traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX). It allows foreign investors to participate in India's equity market derivatives while minimizing constraints such as currency risk, time zone differences, and regulatory barriers.
2. Mixed Global Cues:
While the Indian market may see a positive start, it's important to note that global cues have been mixed. Asian markets traded higher, while the U.S. stock market had a rally. Investors are closely watching developments in the India-US trade deal, Q2 GDP data, rupee movements, foreign fund flows, and other macroeconomic indicators.
3. Wall Street Performance:
On Friday, the US stock market closed higher, although all three major indexes recorded weekly losses due to concerns about stretched technology valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 493.15 points (1.08%) to close at 46,245.41. The S&P 500 was up by 64.23 points (0.98%), ending at 6,602.99, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 195.04 points (0.88%), finishing at 22,273.08.
4. US-Ukraine Peace Deal Momentum:
A renewed U.S. push to end the war between Russia and Ukraine is gathering momentum, although some key issues remain unresolved. A U.S. official stated that Ukraine's government had "agreed to a peace deal" brokered by the Trump administration. However, there was no immediate reaction from Russia, and details of the proposal remain unclear. A special envoy has suggested that peace would require Russia gaining control of Donetsk and potentially a separate territorial exchange.
5. Impact of Potential Peace Deal:
Any resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could significantly impact global markets, including the Indian stock market. A peace deal could lead to increased stability and reduced uncertainty, potentially boosting investor confidence. Conversely, failure to reach an agreement or a resurgence of conflict could negatively affect market sentiment.
6. Gold Prices Steady:
Gold prices held steady recently as investors assessed the likelihood of another US Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming months. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,070.08 an ounce after falling 0.3% in the previous session. On November 25, 2025, gold fell to $4,133 USD/t.oz. Historically, gold reached an all time high of 4381.58 in October of 2025.
7. US Federal Reserve's Role:
Expectations for a US interest rate cut next month have increased following dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials. The possibility of a rate cut is influencing market sentiment and impacting gold prices.
8. FII and DII Activity:
Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth Rs 4,171 crore on a recent Monday. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 4,513 crore. These fluctuating foreign flows could add to interim volatility in the market.
9. Rupee Rebound:
The rupee rebounded sharply by 50 paise to settle at 89.16 against the greenback on a Monday, driven by US dollar selling by banks and importers amid a dip in global crude oil prices.
10. Technical Outlook:
Analysts suggest that a move above 26,180 would improve market sentiment and potentially open the way toward 26,300. Heightened volatility is expected with the November series monthly F&O expiry approaching, and the Nifty is likely to fluctuate within a broader range of 25,800–26,200.
