China is forging ahead with a massive $168 billion hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, sparking concerns in India about water security, ecological balance, and the livelihoods of millions. The Yarlung Tsangpo becomes the Brahmaputra as it enters India, making any upstream activity a potential risk for those dependent on its natural flow.
The proposed hydropower system will utilize a steep 2,000-meter drop in altitude via a network of dams, reservoirs, tunnels, and underground power stations. Experts have described the project as the most sophisticated hydropower system ever attempted, but also one of the riskiest and potentially most dangerous.
One of the main concerns for India is that the project could be used as a "water bomb," allowing China to control the timing and volume of water released into the Brahmaputra. Sudden discharges could cause floods, while withholding water could lead to droughts. While the Brahmaputra's water supply relies significantly on monsoon rains and tributaries within India, experts believe that upstream manipulation could still disrupt the river's natural flow. Even minor alterations could impact fertile floodplains, fisheries, and groundwater recharge in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, regions already susceptible to climate change.
China has dismissed these concerns, with its foreign ministry stating that downstream countries will not be adversely affected. However, skepticism remains in India, influenced by China's past actions regarding transboundary rivers. The sheer scale of the project has further amplified fears.
India has also launched a US$77 billion Brahmaputra hydropower initiative to construct more than 200 dams in its northeast, especially in Arunachal Pradesh. With a planned capacity of 75 gigawatts (GW), it mirrors China's 2025 Yarlung Tsangpo Lower Reaches Hydropower Project, signaling an escalating geopolitical rivalry where hydropower, territorial control and data sovereignty converge. India aims to transmit more than 76 GW of hydropower from the Brahmaputra basin by 2047 through a vast new network that includes 208 dams and 11 GW of pumped storage.
The project's location near the disputed China-India border in Arunachal Pradesh raises concerns that water could become a strategic tool in their relationship. Alterations in sediment flow, seasonal flooding patterns, and fish migration could significantly impact farming and fishing livelihoods in Assam and downstream Bangladesh. Some experts have termed the project a potential "water bomb," reflecting fears that China could gain control over transboundary water flows, particularly during times of political tension.
The confrontation between India and China over the Brahmaputra–Yarlung Tsangpo crystallizes 'hydro-digital geopolitics', where control of water mirrors control of information. Control of water flow is increasingly translating into control of digital capability.
