Fidelity Investments' Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, has tempered expectations for Bitcoin, forecasting a potential bottom of $65,000 in 2026 and suggesting the current bull cycle may have concluded. This perspective diverges from many optimistic predictions circulating within the cryptocurrency community.
Timmer believes Bitcoin likely reached its cycle high in October 2025 when it hit $125,000. He argues that this peak, after "145 months of rallying," aligns with historical data, indicating the bull run is over. He anticipates a support level between $65,000 and $75,000 but foresees struggles for the cryptocurrency to maintain momentum as it approaches 2026.
Timmer's analysis carries weight due to his position at Fidelity Investments, a major asset manager with substantial cryptocurrency exposure. His role involves overseeing broad economic trends that influence investment strategies across both traditional and digital assets. Timmer's caution advises institutional investors to prepare for potential volatility. He still maintains a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin, just not for 2026.
This forecast contrasts with predictions from other analysts, who anticipate regulatory tailwinds to drive an extended bull market cycle in 2026. Bitwise, for example, is betting against a crypto winter in 2026, arguing that ETFs and institutional adoption have disrupted traditional boom-and-bust patterns. They are confident Bitcoin will reach a new record high next year. Delphi Digital's co-founder, Tom Shaughnessy, expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026, after market recovery from the October crash.
However, investor sentiment has soured recently, with Bitcoin's price dropping below $85,000. Market intelligence indicates a decline in social sentiment. Nansen's blockchain intelligence platform reveals that "smart money" traders are betting on a short-term decline for major cryptocurrencies, taking significant short positions on Bitcoin.
Several factors could contribute to a more challenging environment for Bitcoin in 2026. Historical patterns suggest heightened volatility during U.S. election years, which could amplify Bitcoin's price swings. Global regulatory fragmentation remains a headwind, despite progress in the U.S.. A potential slowdown in AI-driven market growth and shifting monetary policy could dampen risk appetite.
Despite Timmer's cautionary outlook, Grayscale Research believes that the crypto asset class is in a sustained bull market and that 2026 will mark the end of the apparent four-year cycle. They anticipate Bitcoin's price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year. Grayscale expects bipartisan crypto market structure legislation to become U.S. law in 2026, leading to deeper integration between public blockchains and traditional finance.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026, a forecast that implies 74% upside from its current price.
Ultimately, the 2026 trajectory of Bitcoin remains uncertain, with conflicting forecasts from various analysts. While some anticipate a consolidation phase or pullback, others foresee new all-time highs driven by institutional adoption and regulatory advancements.
