As the Indian stock market gears up for the final trading session of 2025 on December 31st, investors are cautiously optimistic, with benchmark indices expected to open flat amid mixed global cues.
Global and Domestic Cues
Global signals are providing little directional push. Asian markets display a mixed performance, with gains in Hong Kong offset by weakness in Japan and a flat undertone in China. European equities closed higher, offering mild support, while U.S. markets ended slightly lower overnight, reflecting some risk-off sentiment. Most Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, are closed for New Year's Eve, leading to thin trade.
The Gift Nifty is trading near the 26,127 level, indicating a potentially flat but slightly positive start for the Indian benchmark index.
Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook
The previous session saw the Sensex and Nifty close marginally lower, reflecting investor caution ahead of the December quarter earnings season and a lack of strong domestic triggers. The Sensex settled at 84,675.08, down 20 points (0.02%), while the Nifty 50 edged slightly lower to 25,938.85, losing just 3 points (0.01%).
Technical analysis suggests a range-bound movement. Nifty's chart pattern indicates a "doji" type candle formation at the uptrend line support, signaling indecision in the market. Immediate support for Nifty is seen in the 25,850-25,870 range, with resistance at 26,000. A decisive break below the support level could intensify bearish sentiment. Sustained trade above 26,000 would be required to revive bullish momentum.
The India VIX has eased further to around the 9.5–10 zone, signaling continued subdued volatility.
Sectoral Performance
On December 30th, sectoral performance was mixed. Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank, and Nifty Auto outperformed, while Nifty Realty, Consumer Durables, and IT lagged. Nifty Bank closed 0.41% higher at 59,171.25.
Expert Opinions
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that the Sensex continues to show signs of indecision, with traders awaiting a breakout on either side, with 85,000 acting as a key level.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, indicated that Nifty has slipped to the upper band of a falling wedge pattern, where the correction appears to have been arrested.
Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said that aggressive Call writing is observed at the 26,000 level, while strong Put open interest is around the 25,900 level, reinforcing this zone as an important near-term support and pivot area.
Key Factors to Watch
- Global Economic Data: Investors will be closely monitoring US jobless claims, FOMC minutes, and China's December manufacturing PMI.
- FII/DII Activity: Recent data indicates mixed activity from Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII).
- Earnings Season: The market is bracing for the start of the December quarter earnings season.
- Technical Levels: Traders are focusing on key technical levels to gauge the next directional trigger.
Overall, the Indian stock market is expected to see a range-bound and cautious trading session on December 31, 2025, influenced by global cues, technical factors, and anticipation of upcoming economic data and earnings reports.
