The race for the NHL's Calder Trophy, awarded to the league's best rookie, might appear close upon initial observation, but a deeper dive reveals a widening gap between the frontrunner and the rest of the pack. While several impressive rookies have emerged this season, New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer has solidified his position as the clear favorite.
Schaefer's dominance stems from a combination of factors, including his exceptional play, significant ice time, and the substantial impact he has on his team. Drafted first overall in 2025, Schaefer has seamlessly transitioned into the NHL, showcasing a level of maturity and skill rarely seen in 18-year-old defensemen. He leads all rookies in average time on ice, playing over 24 minutes a night, a testament to the trust the Islanders' coaching staff has in him. Not only is Schaefer logging heavy minutes, but he is also contributing offensively, ranking among the top rookie scorers. His two-way prowess is particularly noteworthy; while contributing offensively, Schaefer excels defensively, making him an invaluable asset to the Islanders.
While Schaefer has a strong hold on the lead, several other rookies are making a case for Calder consideration. Montreal Canadiens forward Ivan Demidov remains a strong contender. Demidov leads all rookies in scoring with 32 points in 38 games. Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke is also making waves, leading all rookies in even-strength points. Jesper Wallstedt, a goaltender for the Minnesota Wild, is also in contention after recording a 11-2-2 record and leading the NHL with four shutouts.
However, the historical trends and voting tendencies suggest that Schaefer's well-rounded game and significant role on the Islanders give him a distinct advantage. The Calder Trophy often rewards players who demonstrate exceptional impact and play a crucial role on their respective teams. Schaefer's substantial ice time, contributions in all zones, and the Islanders' reliance on him solidify his case as the frontrunner.
Ultimately, while the performances of Demidov, Sennecke, Wallstedt and other rookies are commendable, Matthew Schaefer's impact on the New York Islanders sets him apart in the Calder Trophy race. His combination of offensive skill, defensive responsibility, and significant ice time make him the clear favorite as the season progresses. While surprises can always happen, it would take a significant shift in performance to dethrone Schaefer from his position as the frontrunner for the 2026 Calder Trophy.
