India's stock market is bracing for a potential surge in volatility as a substantial $45 billion worth of shares from newly listed companies become eligible for trading following the expiry of their IPO lock-in periods. According to a recent report by Nuvama, 96 companies will see their pre-IPO shareholder lock-ins lifted between January 6 and April 30, 2026. This influx of shares into the secondary market could trigger short-term price fluctuations, prompting investors to closely monitor the expiry dates.

Understanding IPO Lock-in Expiry

A lock-in period is a stipulated timeframe after an initial public offering (IPO) during which pre-IPO shareholders, including promoters and early investors, are restricted from selling their shares. This restriction is designed to ensure price stability and prevent early investors from cashing out immediately after the listing. Once the lock-in period expires, these shareholders are free to sell their holdings in the open market. This can significantly increase the supply of available shares, potentially leading to price movements.

Potential Market Impact

The Nuvama report highlights that the $45 billion figure represents the total value of shares that will be unlocked during this period. While this is a substantial amount, it's important to note that not all of these shares are expected to flood the market immediately. A significant portion is likely held by promoters and promoter group entities, who may not be inclined to sell. However, the potential for increased supply remains, and if a large number of early investors decide to cash out simultaneously, it could exert downward pressure on stock prices.

Companies Approaching Lock-in Expiry

Several companies are slated to experience lock-in expiries in the coming weeks. On January 7, 2026, Meesho saw 110 million shares, representing 2% of its total outstanding shares, become tradeable. Shares of Meesho dropped 5% following the lock-in expiry. Simultaneously, Aequs will have 17 million shares (2%) and Vidya Wires will have 9 million shares (4%) freed up for trading. Other companies with near-term lock-in expiries include Nephrocare Health Services, CORONA Remedies, and Wakefit Innovations. Later in January, ICICI Pru AMC, KSH International, and Gujarat Kidney & Super Speciality will also see their lock-in periods end. Tata Capital, which had one of the largest IPOs in 2025, also had 71.2 million shares (2% equity) released on January 7.

Investor Considerations

Market experts advise investors to pay close attention to these lock-in expiry dates. The increased availability of shares can lead to temporary volatility, creating both risks and opportunities. Investors should be prepared for potential price fluctuations and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. It's also important to consider the company's performance post-IPO, the percentage of shares being released, and the overall market conditions.