Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026 is marked by conflicting signals, creating a divide among key asset managers and prominent players regarding its price outlook. While some anticipate a strong rebound, others, pointing to technical indicators and historical patterns, suggest the bear market is still in effect, with $65,000 emerging as a critical price level.

Bullish vs. Bearish Outlooks

Optimism prevails among firms like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase, who foresee a potential new all-time high of $150,000 in 2026. Some believe the traditional four-year cycle has ended after Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, breaking from past market behavior. They anticipate Bitcoin aligning more closely with U.S. equities, potentially driving its price higher and mitigating the impact of a bear market.

However, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, dissents from this bullish view. He expresses skepticism about the notion that bear markets are a thing of the past, identifying $65,000 as a crucial "line in the sand" for Bitcoin, with a further level of $45,000 below that. Timmer's analysis incorporates the Bitcoin Power Law and other proprietary models, suggesting that a year of consolidation could lead to a test of the $65,000 level. Many bearish analysts have been targeting the $65,000 - $75,000 range as a possible rebound zone linked to the next market cycle in 2027-2028.

Technical Indicators and Capital Flows

Contributing to the bearish sentiment is CryptoQuant, which indicated that Bitcoin entered a bear market in early November 2025 after falling below its 1-year Moving Average. Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, supports this view, citing slowing capital growth momentum at the network level, as tracked by the Realized Cap indicator. Historically, slowed or declining Realized Cap values have coincided with previous Bitcoin bear markets, while growth in capital inflows has aligned with bull runs. In November 2025, the Realized Cap signaled bear market risk for the first time since 2023. A continued stagnation or downtrend in Realized Cap would reinforce these historical patterns, potentially undermining the bullish outlook for 2026.

The Significance of $65,000

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer highlights the importance of the $65,000 level, noting that if Bitcoin consolidates for a year, this level could be tested. He notes Bitcoin's current path aligns more with the internet's S-curve than a power-law curve. He identifies Bitcoin's floor at $65,000, its prior all-time high, with the power-law trendline setting its base at $45,000. If Bitcoin consolidates over the next year, the power-law trendline could move closer to $65,000, becoming a critical level. The $65,000 level represents a "do-or-die" price, suggesting that holding above this level could signal a continuation of bullish momentum, while falling below it could confirm the ongoing bear market.