In the wake of the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, 2025, which claimed the lives of numerous security personnel and civilians, India has taken a decisive step with potentially massive ramifications for Pakistan. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, decided to hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 in abeyance. This move represents a significant shift in India's strategic posture, effectively using a long-standing water agreement as a tool of deterrence against Pakistan's alleged support for cross-border terrorism.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has been hailed as a rare success story of sustained cooperation between India and Pakistan, surviving wars and diplomatic crises for over six decades. The treaty granted India control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and Pakistan rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), despite their origins in Indian territory. However, the Pahalgam attack appears to have been a breaking point, leading the CCS to conclude that Pakistan's continued support for terrorism violates the spirit of the treaty.
Rather than a formal withdrawal from the IWT, India has opted to freeze cooperation, including technical meetings, data sharing, and water flow notifications. This decision is poised to have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan, a nation heavily reliant on the Indus River system for its agriculture, which forms the backbone of its economy. Approximately 90% of Pakistan's irrigation depends on water from the Indus basin. Any disruption, or even the anticipation of disruption, in water supply from the western rivers could exacerbate water scarcity, reduce crop yields, and fuel domestic unrest, particularly in the already water-stressed provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
Experts warn that India's suspension of the IWT could disrupt crucial water data sharing and reduce flows during key crop seasons, with serious repercussions for Pakistan's agricultural economy. Wheat, rice, and cotton, major exports for Pakistan, are particularly vulnerable to water disruptions during critical growth periods. While immediate, large-scale water diversion by India is unlikely due to infrastructure limitations, the move is viewed as a significant political statement. Constructing the necessary infrastructure to fully utilize its share of the Indus basin's western rivers could take India a decade or more.
Pakistan has reacted strongly, deeming India's suspension of the IWT an "act of war" and warning of retaliation with "full force across the complete spectrum of national power". They argue that the treaty lacks a clause allowing unilateral suspension. Local media in Muzaffarabad reported instances of India releasing water from the Uri Dam into the Jhelum River unannounced, causing flooding, and a sharp decline in water levels of the Chenab River in Sialkot. While India maintains that its actions are within the bounds of the treaty, Pakistan views them as a violation of international law and UN resolutions on Kashmir. The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation. A ceasefire was announced on May 10, 2025, following an agreement between the two nations.
