In a recent 2026 macro outlook, a Bloomberg strategist has signaled a potential downturn for Bitcoin, suggesting that the "Bitcoin trade is over" amidst a shifting landscape favoring defensive assets like gold. This analysis arrives as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its previous momentum, currently trading 30% below its October peak of $126,000, despite what are considered favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has pointed to gold's strong performance in 2025 as a concerning indicator for Bitcoin. McGlone argues that gold's rise signals a broader move towards defensive strategies, which historically precedes weaker performance for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. In a LinkedIn post, McGlone highlighted that gold's alpha, or positive investment performance, is at its highest pace since 1979, potentially signaling a market risk reversion in 2026.
Adding to the bearish outlook, McGlone had previously predicted a potential drop to $10,000 for Bitcoin in 2026, attributing this to increasing competition from other digital assets. This contrasts with other analysts who remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential, with some forecasting Bitcoin reaching $177,000 by December 2026 and approximately $226,000 by December 2027.
The strategist's warning comes as Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, eroding gains from a previous rally. Data indicates that traders withdrew $486 million from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reflecting a cautious sentiment.
Furthermore, a recent Bloomberg report indicates that Wall Street institutions are scaling back Bitcoin basis trade strategies amidst increased global macroeconomic volatility. Influenced by geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations regarding international trade policies, risk aversion has spiked, prompting institutions to move capital from complex strategies to safe-haven assets like gold and high-grade bonds. The Bitcoin basis trade, which involves buying Bitcoin in the spot market while shorting equivalent Bitcoin futures contracts, has seen its annualized yields drop from 10%-15% to 5%-8%, diminishing its appeal compared to U.S. Treasuries.
Despite the pessimism from some corners, it's important to note that the crypto market in 2026 is expected to be driven by consolidation, compliance, and institutional money. Stablecoins are predicted to gain traction, and crypto is expected to integrate further into mainstream platforms.
The situation remains dynamic, with Bitcoin's price movements heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and shifts in investor sentiment. While some analysts, like McGlone, advise caution and anticipate further price corrections, others maintain a bullish outlook, emphasizing Bitcoin's potential for long-term growth and its role as a "digital gold" in an era of fiat currency uncertainty.
