The recent agreement between Bangladesh and China to establish a drone manufacturing facility in Bangladesh has triggered alarm bells in India, raising concerns about regional security and shifting geopolitical dynamics. The $55.3 million project, formalized through a government-to-government deal between the Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) and China Electronics Technology Group Corporation International (CETC), will not only bolster Bangladesh's defense capabilities but also deepen China's footprint in the Bay of Bengal.

Strategic Implications for India

India's primary concern stems from the potential strategic implications of a Chinese-backed drone factory on its eastern flank. Some analysts fear that the drones could be used for surveillance along the India-Bangladesh border, potentially compromising India's security interests. There are apprehensions that sensitive technologies could be accessed by China, allowing it to monitor Indian border regions and gather intelligence for its own military advantage.

Moreover, the establishment of this facility could enable cross-border infiltration, reconnaissance, and even smuggling operations, further destabilizing the region. The Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of land connecting mainland India to its northeastern states, is seen as particularly vulnerable. Some Indian media outlets have portrayed the potential acquisition of military equipment as a threat to the security of this corridor.

China's Expanding Influence

The drone factory is viewed as another step in China's growing influence in South Asia, particularly in countries surrounding India. China has long been Bangladesh's principal arms supplier. Between 2019 and 2023, 72% of Bangladesh's military equipment originated from China. This defense cooperation includes military training and defense production. The drone manufacturing facility enhances this relationship, solidifying China's position as a key partner for Bangladesh.

From China's perspective, situating drone manufacturing in Bangladesh offers logistical depth and export opportunities, enabling Beijing to service South Asian, Southeast Asian, and potentially Middle Eastern markets from a geographically central and politically receptive hub.

Bangladesh's Perspective

Bangladesh defends its defense procurement strategy as pragmatic, emphasizing that it doesn't signal a full-fledged alliance with any specific supplier. Bangladesh procures defense equipment from various countries, including China, Russia, and Turkey, based on practical and financial considerations. These countries often offer weapons at lower costs, easier maintenance, and fewer political conditions.

The Bangladesh government asserts that the drones will be used not only for military operations but also for humanitarian assistance and disaster management. The drone factory aligns with Bangladesh's goal of achieving self-reliance in UAV production. The project also aims to transfer technology, build capacity, and develop industrial skills, contributing to technological advancement and a skilled aerospace workforce.

India's Response

India has been taking steps to counter China's growing influence in the region. It has barred domestic manufacturers of military drones from using Chinese components due to security concerns. This measure reflects India's apprehension about potential vulnerabilities in communication functions, cameras, radio transmission, and operating software. India is also focused on strengthening its own domestic defense industry and modernizing its military.

Geopolitical Landscape

The Bangladesh-China drone deal occurs within a complex geopolitical landscape. Some analysts suggest that a convergence of interests between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh is emerging, potentially creating vulnerabilities for India. Others point to a growing defense relationship between Bangladesh and Turkey, with Turkey offering technological assistance and exploring joint defense-industrial facilities. However, it is also argued that Bangladesh's strategic posture is fundamentally defensive and that its arms acquisitions are primarily aimed at modernizing its military for internal security and external defense.

Overall, the China-backed drone factory in Bangladesh presents a multifaceted challenge for India. It underscores the need for India to carefully monitor regional developments, strengthen its own defense capabilities, and engage proactively with its neighbors to safeguard its strategic interests.