Recent reports suggest that India may be scaling back its Russian oil imports, but claims of a complete cessation, as suggested by former U.S. President Donald Trump, appear to be premature. A new trade deal between the U.S. and India includes tariff reductions for Indian goods entering the U.S., seemingly in exchange for India reducing its reliance on Russian oil.
Trump stated that India agreed to halt Russian oil purchases and instead increase imports from the United States and potentially Venezuela. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while acknowledging the tariff reductions, made no mention of any commitment to stop buying Russian oil. Similarly, India's Foreign Ministry has not commented on Trump's claim. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow had not received any information from India regarding plans to cease Russian oil purchases, and that Russia is carefully monitoring the situation.
While a complete halt seems unlikely in the immediate future, sources indicate that India will gradually decrease Russian oil imports, limiting them to situations where alternative supplies are irreplaceable. This aligns with a broader trend of declining Russian oil imports since U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect. Imports averaged 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2025, a decrease from the peak of 2.1-2.2 million barrels per day. In January 2026, they fell further to around 1 million barrels per day, and expectations are that they may soon drop below that level. Some sources suggest that imports could halve in the coming months due to the new understanding with the U.S.
Several factors contribute to this shift. EU restrictions on the purchase, import, and transfer of oil products refined from Russian crude oil may be playing a role. Additionally, some Indian refiners are reportedly turning to Middle Eastern crude suppliers.
A complete cessation of Russian oil imports would significantly impact Nayara Energy, a refinery backed by Russia that relies solely on Russian crude following EU sanctions. Nayara Energy is not planning to load Russian oil in April because it will be shutting down for maintenance for over a month starting April 10. Two other refiners have paused new orders in recent days after booking volumes for February and March.
Despite the uncertainty, the long-term impact on the tanker market is expected to be significant. BIMCO data indicates that Russia-India trade accounted for a notable percentage of tonne miles in both clean and dirty tanker markets. A reduction in these volumes could shift demand from the parallel fleet back to the mainstream fleet, particularly affecting the dirty tanker segment.
In 2024, Russia accounted for approximately 36% of India's total crude imports, which is around 1.8 million barrels per day. India, being the world's third-largest oil importer, also sources crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the US. While India has been promising to reduce its imports of Russian oil for over a year, the recent trade deal with the U.S. might finally lead to a substantial change in its energy sourcing strategy.