The evolving relationship between India, the Taliban, and Pakistan presents a complex and uneasy geostrategic dance in the region. Recent events, including high-level engagements and escalating tensions, highlight the shifting dynamics and competing interests at play.
India's engagement with the Taliban has been gradually increasing, driven by pragmatic diplomacy and a calculated effort to reclaim strategic space in Afghanistan. Historically, Afghanistan has been a crucial arena for the India-Pakistan rivalry, with both countries vying for influence. India's support for Western-backed governments in Kabul contrasted with Pakistan's cultivation of the Taliban insurgency.
In a significant move, Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited New Delhi, marking the highest-level engagement between the Taliban and India since the group took control of Kabul in August 2021. During the visit, India announced its decision to upgrade its technical mission in Kabul to a full-fledged embassy, signaling a shift from cautious backchannel talks to a more structured bilateral relationship. This follows earlier steps, such as deploying a "technical team" to Kabul in 2022 and permitting the Taliban to appoint an official envoy and open diplomatic consulates in Mumbai and Hyderabad by late 2023.
India's approach towards the Taliban has evolved, recognizing the group as a reality and engaging with the regime while stopping short of official recognition. This strategy aims to counter Pakistan's influence and balance China's growing presence in Afghanistan. India has also expressed its commitment to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Afghanistan.
However, this rapprochement coincides with a downturn in relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan, which historically had close ties with the Taliban, now views its northwestern neighbor as a liability. Tensions have grown due to repeated attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), allegedly launched from Afghan soil. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of hosting the TTP, a claim that Kabul denies.
Recent clashes along the Durand Line, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, have further strained relations. Pakistan has conducted airstrikes inside Afghanistan, targeting what it claims are terrorist training facilities and support networks. These actions have led to casualties on both sides and prompted a temporary ceasefire. Pakistan's defense minister has even accused the Taliban leadership of "sitting in India's lap," signaling a hardening of Islamabad's stance.
The complex dynamics between India, the Taliban, and Pakistan are influenced by various factors, including historical rivalries, security concerns, and economic interests. India seeks to engage with whoever is in power in Afghanistan as a counterbalance to Pakistan, while the Taliban aims to gain international recognition and secure economic assistance. Pakistan, on the other hand, wants to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a base for anti-Pakistan activities and seeks to maintain its influence in the region.
The evolving situation presents both opportunities and risks. Closer India-Taliban ties could provide New Delhi with a way to counter Pakistan's influence and promote regional stability. However, it also raises concerns about legitimizing a regime with a questionable human rights record. The escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan could further destabilize the region and create opportunities for transnational violent actors.
To prevent Afghanistan from becoming a proxy battlefield, it is crucial to establish a regional security initiative involving key players such as India, Pakistan, Iran, and China. This initiative should focus on preventing the use of Afghan territory for hostile activities, creating impartial border monitoring mechanisms, and establishing rapid-response channels to defuse incidents before they escalate.
