The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which claimed the lives of 26 tourists and injured many others, has once again thrust the fraught relationship between India and Pakistan into the international spotlight. The attack, claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, has led to a fresh wave of accusations and retaliatory measures, highlighting the limitations of Pakistan's reliance on its traditional allies. While Pakistan seeks to project an image of regional influence, the reality on the ground reveals a nation increasingly isolated in its stance against India, particularly concerning the Kashmir issue.
Following the Pahalgam attack, India has taken a series of assertive measures, including the expulsion of Pakistani diplomats, suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, and closure of border crossings. These actions reflect a hardening stance towards Pakistan and a determination to hold it accountable for cross-border terrorism. Pakistan, in turn, has denied any involvement in the attack and called for a "neutral" investigation, a move seen by many as an attempt to deflect blame and garner international support. However, this strategy appears to be faltering, as even Pakistan's closest allies are showing signs of distancing themselves from its position.
China, often regarded as Pakistan's most steadfast ally, has expressed support for an impartial probe into the Pahalgam attack. While this might seem like a diplomatic gesture of support, it also indicates a subtle shift in China's stance. China's growing economic and strategic interests in India, coupled with its concerns about terrorism emanating from the region, are likely influencing its approach. Publicly endorsing Pakistan's narrative without reservation could jeopardize its relationship with India and undermine its regional stability goals.
Other traditional allies of Pakistan, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, have also been relatively muted in their response to the crisis. While these countries maintain cordial relations with Pakistan, they are also wary of being drawn into the Indo-Pakistani conflict. Their primary focus remains on regional stability and economic partnerships, which could be threatened by escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Iran has even offered to mediate between India and Pakistan, signaling a preference for de-escalation and dialogue over confrontation.
The lack of strong support from its allies underscores Pakistan's growing isolation in the international arena. Its long-standing policy of using terrorism as a tool of statecraft has eroded its credibility and made it difficult to find genuine partners willing to defend its actions. The international community, increasingly concerned about terrorism and regional stability, is unlikely to endorse any actions that could exacerbate tensions in South Asia.
Pakistan's reliance on "plausible deniability" regarding its involvement in cross-border terrorism is also wearing thin. Despite its denials, evidence continues to emerge linking Pakistani-based groups to terrorist attacks in India, further undermining its credibility. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has also exerted pressure on Pakistan to crack down on terror financing, forcing it to take some cosmetic measures but failing to address the root causes of the problem.
In the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position. Its traditional allies are reluctant to offer unwavering support, its economy is fragile, and its international standing is diminished. While it may continue to seek external validation for its actions, the reality is that Pakistan's friends are increasingly unable or unwilling to defend its policies towards India. This situation calls for a fundamental reassessment of Pakistan's foreign policy and a genuine commitment to peaceful relations with its neighbor, which will require a shift away from using terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Without such a change, Pakistan will likely find itself increasingly isolated and unable to count on its friends in its actions against India.
