The relationship between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors, has long been fraught with tension, marked by territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and political animosity. While military confrontations and diplomatic maneuvering have historically defined their interactions, a new dimension is emerging in this complex relationship: a battle over increasingly scarce resources, exacerbated by climate change.
Recent events have brought this new battle into sharp focus. Following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, India launched a series of strikes against alleged terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated, and the situation escalated rapidly, with exchanges of fire along the border, airspace closures, and the deployment of drones. Amidst this heightened military tension, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India would stop water from crossing the border into Pakistan, vowing to utilize it for India's own interests. This announcement effectively suspended a 1960 treaty that allows the two countries to share water from the Indus Basin.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank, has been a cornerstone of regional peace for over six decades, dividing access to the six rivers of the Indus basin. The treaty granted India control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and Pakistan control over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). However, recent upstream water infrastructure projects by India have rekindled conflicts. Pakistan has warned that any attempt to block its water supply would be considered an "act of war" and responded with full force. Experts suggest that India currently lacks the infrastructure to completely control the water flow, but could engineer small disruptions that would impact the timing and amount of water flowing into Pakistan.
This water dispute is occurring against the backdrop of increasing climate change impacts. Pakistan is considered one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and its water resources are already burdened by rising temperatures, droughts, and the impact of melting glaciers on water flow. A particularly dry winter led to significantly less rainfall than usual. Climate change is predicted to diminish the Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus Basin, which may increase water flow in the short term, but will deplete groundwater recharge in the long run, thus reducing available water resources. Rapid population growth and increasing urbanization are further straining water supplies in both countries.
The timing of water flow is critical, as Pakistan's agriculture relies heavily on the Indus Basin. Disruptions to water flow could have devastating consequences for Pakistan's agricultural sector and overall economy. Many Pakistanis already lack access to clean and reliable water sources, a problem exacerbated by climate change.
The World Bank has stated it has no role to play beyond a facilitator in the Indus Waters Treaty dispute. According to World Bank President Ajay Banga, the World Bank is only a facilitator and cannot intervene in bilateral issues.
The current situation presents a dangerous mix of military tension and resource scarcity. While the world's attention is focused on the potential for military escalation, the underlying struggle for water resources could have far-reaching consequences for the region. The challenge for both India and Pakistan is to find ways to cooperate on water management and climate change adaptation, even amidst political tensions. Failure to do so could lead to further instability and conflict in an already volatile region.
