The United States' stance on India-Pakistan tensions has seen a notable shift recently, moving from a position of perceived disinterest to one of active engagement. This change is particularly evident in the context of escalating tensions following India's "Operation Sindoor".
Initially, there were indications that the U.S. considered the India-Pakistan conflict as "fundamentally none of our business". This sentiment, expressed by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, suggested a desire for the U.S. to disengage from the situation. However, this stance quickly evolved as tensions escalated.
The turning point appears to be India's "Operation Sindoor," a military offensive launched in response to a Pakistan-backed terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives. This operation targeted terrorist infrastructure deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, drawing strong reactions both domestically and internationally.
As the situation escalated, with reports of cross-border firing and casualties, the U.S. shifted its approach. President Donald Trump, who initially was not surprised by India's move, announced that the U.S. had brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. He even claimed that the U.S. had averted a "nuclear conflict" between the two nations, adding that he had threatened to stop trade with both countries unless they agreed to end hostilities.
This claim of averting a nuclear conflict and using trade as leverage was, however, refuted by Indian government sources, who stated that there was "no reference to trade" during talks between Indian and U.S. officials. Nevertheless, the U.S. actively engaged in de-escalation efforts. U.S. Vice President Vance spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and NSA Marco Rubio spoke with the External Affairs Minister and NSA Ajit Doval.
Following these diplomatic efforts, President Trump announced that India and Pakistan had agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site. He commended the leaders of both countries for choosing the path of peace. Secretary of State Rubio echoed this sentiment, confirming the ceasefire and highlighting the engagement with senior Indian and Pakistani officials.
Despite the U.S. claiming a mediatory role, some reports suggest that the sequence of events tells a different story. According to these reports, India held the upper hand militarily and diplomatically, and it was Pakistan that ultimately requested a ceasefire after suffering significant losses from "Operation Sindoor". It is also suggested that Pakistan reached out to the U.S., who in turn contacted India, but India made it clear that Pakistan would have to make the first move by requesting a ceasefire through the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs).
The reasons behind the U.S.'s change in stance are likely multifaceted. The potential for escalation between two nuclear-armed nations, the need to maintain regional stability, and the U.S.'s strategic interests in the region likely all played a role. Furthermore, the U.S. may have sought to assert its influence and demonstrate its ability to mediate complex international disputes.
While the U.S. has offered to help find a solution to the Kashmir issue, India has maintained its firm position that Kashmir is an integral part of India and that the matter is not open for negotiation, especially through third-party mediation.
