In March 2025, India's crude oil import landscape saw a slight shift, with an increase in the share of oil imports from Russia. While OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to a record low in fiscal year 2024-25, Russia has become the top oil supplier to India for the third consecutive year.

Key Trends in India's Crude Oil Imports

Several factors have contributed to the evolving dynamics of India's crude oil imports:

• Increased Imports: India's crude oil imports have surged, reaching a record high of 5.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in March 2025. This increase is attributed to strong domestic demand, high refining capacity, and favorable economics associated with Russian barrels.
• Rise of Russian Oil: Imports of Russian crude have risen, with Russia contributing 1.88 mb/d in March 2025. This increase has raised Russia's share marginally to 36%, while OPEC's share has slightly declined to 48.5%.
• OPEC's Declining Share: The share of OPEC oil in India's imports has fallen to a record low in fiscal year 2024-25. This decline is due to factors such as reduced imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
• Record Import Volumes: India's overall crude imports in March 2025 are estimated to be around 5.133 million barrels per day, marking the highest monthly import volume on record since 2008.
• Increased Import Dependency: India's reliance on crude oil imports has increased slightly from 88.6% in March 2024 to 89.1% in March 2025.

Factors Influencing the Shift

Several factors have contributed to the changing landscape of India's crude oil imports:

• Discounted Russian Oil: India has been purchasing Russian oil at a discounted price following Western sanctions against Moscow due to the Ukraine conflict. The discounted prices on Urals and other Russian grades have made Russian barrels attractive to Indian refiners.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Altered trade flows due to geopolitical tensions and costlier shipments from some traditional suppliers have led India to diversify its sources of crude oil and tap cheaper supplies from countries like Russia.
• Refining Economics: Indian refiners are fast adapting to the evolving trade dynamics by navigating sanctions to procure Russian barrels, despite higher logistics costs and ship-to-ship transfers. Competitive Russian barrels and strong refining margins, supported by robust local demand, have also contributed to higher imports in March 2025.
• Diversification Efforts: Amid global uncertainty and continued US sanctions on Russia, several Indian oil and gas companies have started seeking alternate sources for oil supplies, particularly from the US, to diversify their sourcing basket.

Impact and Implications

The shifting dynamics of India's crude oil imports have several implications:

• Cost Savings: The drop in average prices of India's crude oil basket, from $84.49 per barrel in March 2024 to $72.47 in March 2025, indicates that India is paying significantly less for imported oil, providing some relief to the national import bill.
• Increased Consumption: India's consumption of petroleum products has increased, with high-speed diesel consumption growing by 2.0%, motor spirit consumption increasing by 7.5%, and LPG consumption rising by 5.6%.
• Record Russian Supplies: India's crude intake in March 2025 reached a record 5.3 million barrels per day, with Russia contributing 1.88 Mbd. Russia remained the top supplier, followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US.

Overall, while OPEC continues to be a significant player, Russia has been able to increase its share of the Indian oil import market.