The Indian stock market has recently experienced a significant downturn after a period of trading within a narrow range. On April 7, 2025, benchmark Indian equity indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 crashed, recording one of their worst falls in the last four years. The Sensex plunged 3,939.68 points, or 5.22 per cent, to an intraday low of 71,425.01, while the Nifty50 plummeted 1,160.8 points, or 5.06 per cent, to an intraday low of 21,743.65. This event has triggered a debate among investors and analysts: Is this a temporary correction, or does it signal a deeper, more prolonged bear market? More importantly, does this crash present a good entry point for investors looking to capitalize on potentially undervalued stocks?
Several factors contributed to this recent market crash. Global cues played a significant role, with concerns over a potential recession in the US due to an escalating global trade war, especially the one triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. On April 7, the Sensex opened 3,914.75 points, or 5.19%, lower at 71,449.94, while the Nifty 50 began trading with a dip of 1,146.05 points, or 5.00%, at 21,758.40, witnessing its one of the biggest single-day fall in the history. Adding to the negative sentiment was the Pahalgam terror attack, which flared up tensions between India and Pakistan, weighing on market sentiment. Such geopolitical anxieties often lead to increased market volatility.
However, the Indian market possesses robust structural drivers that support a long-term bullish outlook. A high savings rate, among the world's highest, continues to be supported by favorable demographics and urbanization, thus further strengthening domestic investment while reducing reliance on volatile capital flows. Indian household savings are projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with a substantial portion currently invested in property and gold, indicating promising potential for future equity inflows. Furthermore, India's relatively inward-focused economy is better positioned compared to more trade-dependent nations in a world of increasing tariffs.
From a technical analysis perspective, several tools can assist investors in identifying favorable entry points. Moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands are commonly used to gauge market trends and volatility. Support and resistance levels help identify price points where a stock is likely to find buying or selling interest, respectively. Additionally, volume analysis can confirm the strength of price trends, with higher volume indicating more reliable movements.
Despite the positive long-term outlook, caution is warranted. Valuations remain stretched, with the MSCI India index trading above its 10-year and pre-COVID averages. GDP growth has shown signs of slowing, impacting corporate earnings. Rising food prices have also resulted in stickier inflation, constraining the Reserve Bank of India from easing monetary policy. However, experts at BNP Paribas expect 2025 to be a year where the Indian stock market will continue to be supported by domestic flows, as well as a stable local macro-economic and policy environment.
Given the current market conditions, a measured approach is advisable for investors. Instead of making lump-sum investments, consider deploying funds gradually through systematic investment plans (SIPs) to mitigate risk and take advantage of potential market corrections. Focus on fundamentally strong companies with consistent earnings growth and reasonable valuations. Sectors like telecommunications, IT, real estate, and pharmaceuticals are expected to maintain robust growth, presenting potential investment opportunities.
Ultimately, whether this market crash represents a good entry point depends on individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and financial goals. While the near-term outlook remains uncertain, the Indian stock market's long-term growth potential remains intact. By carefully analyzing market trends, understanding technical indicators, and adopting a disciplined investment approach, investors can navigate the current volatility and capitalize on potential opportunities.