Predicting the future value of any currency, including the Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar (USD), is a complex task influenced by numerous global and domestic economic factors. While an exact appreciation to 84 INR per USD cannot be definitively stated, examining forecasts from top international banks and economic indicators provides valuable insights.

Factors Influencing the INR/USD Exchange Rate:

Several key factors play a crucial role in determining the strength of the Indian Rupee:

• US Dollar Strength: A weaker US Dollar generally leads to a stronger Rupee. The Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, is a key indicator to watch. Expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts can also weaken the dollar.
• RBI Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy, including interest rate decisions and interventions in the currency market, significantly impacts the Rupee's value. Interest rate cuts by the RBI can make Indian assets less attractive to foreign investors, potentially weakening the Rupee. The RBI's foreign exchange reserves and its willingness to intervene to manage volatility also play a crucial role.
• Economic Growth and Inflation: India's economic growth rate and inflation levels are critical determinants. Higher growth and lower inflation generally support a stronger Rupee.
• Foreign Investment Flows: Inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) increase demand for the Rupee, leading to appreciation.
• Trade Balance: A less negative balance of trade, meaning exports are closer in value to imports, typically strengthens the Rupee.
• Geopolitical Factors: Events such as trade deals, geopolitical tensions (e.g., India-Pakistan relations), and US tariff policies can create uncertainty and influence currency movements.

International Bank Forecasts:

Several international banks offer forecasts for the INR/USD exchange rate, though these are subject to change based on evolving economic conditions:

• MUFG: In March 2025, MUFG Research adjusted its USD/INR forecast to 87.50 by the end of 2025, down from a previous forecast of 88.50. This revision reflects expectations of a weaker dollar and local factors such as a smaller current account deficit and softer inflation.
• ING: Analysts at ING forecast that USD/INR would remain stable at 84.00 during the first part of 2025, due to central bank interventions.
• Bank of Baroda: Projects the rupee to trade in the range of 85.5-87.5 per dollar in fiscal year 2026, expecting that the rupee will find support from improvement in growth prospects, lower inflation and stable external deficits.
• Traders Union: According to analytical forecasts, the price of USD/INR may reach ₹85.642 by the end of 2025.

Other Expert Opinions:

• Some AI-based forecasts suggest a weakening of the Rupee to 90 or even 100 against the dollar in the coming years.
• Other analysts predict the Indian Rupee is expected to appreciate against the US dollar in 2024, driven by anticipation of continued foreign inflows. Robust foreign inflows into the domestic market have played a pivotal role, providing resilience to the rupee amidst global uncertainties.

Present Day:

On May 22nd, 2025, 1 US Dollar is equal to 85.9575 Indian Rupees. Today's expected low - high USD to INR forecast rates is INR 85.64 - 85.6438.

Conclusion:

While some forecasts suggest the possibility of the INR appreciating to around 84 against the USD, a broad consensus points towards a more stable or slightly weaker Rupee in the near term. The actual trajectory will depend on the interplay of the factors mentioned above, including global economic trends, RBI policies, and geopolitical developments. Monitoring these factors and considering forecasts from various financial institutions is crucial for understanding the potential future value of the INR.