As India tightens its grip on the Indus River, Pakistan is increasingly reliant on the China-backed Mohmand Dam to meet its growing water needs. This situation unfolds against a backdrop of heightened tensions and a shifting geopolitical landscape, raising questions about Pakistan's water security and the dam's potential to mitigate the impacts of a less cooperative India.

Recent events have significantly strained the relationship between India and Pakistan, particularly concerning the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Following a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir in April 2025, India suspended the IWT, a 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank that had previously survived multiple wars and conflicts. India's decision, framed as a response to Pakistan's alleged support for cross-border terrorism, effectively puts the treaty in "abeyance," halting data sharing, joint oversight, and any form of dialogue or cooperation. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal asserted that the IWT will remain suspended until Pakistan credibly abandons its support for cross-border terrorism.

This move has serious implications for Pakistan, which relies heavily on the Indus River system for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower. The Indus and its tributaries provide nearly 80% of Pakistan's water for these essential needs, supporting approximately 80% of its cultivated land. The treaty allocated the waters of the three "Western Rivers" – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum – to Pakistan, while India received control over the "Eastern Rivers" – the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej. The agreement allowed India to use the Western Rivers for limited irrigation and unlimited non-consumptive purposes like power generation, but with strict regulations to prevent harm to downstream access.

With the IWT in abeyance, India can now potentially modify existing infrastructure or construct new projects to hold back or divert more water without informing Pakistan. Indian experts have long argued that inadequate infrastructure has prevented India from fully utilizing its share of the Indus waters, further motivating the construction of storage facilities. India is expected to accelerate infrastructure projects to harness the western rivers for power generation and irrigation in Jammu and Kashmir. Key projects like the 850 MW Ratle and 330 MW Kishenganga hydroelectric projects could unlock an additional 2,500 MW of electricity and irrigate 1.5 million acres. By diverting up to 15 percent of the 135 million acre-feet of water previously allocated to Pakistan, India seeks to bolster its resilience against climate-induced shortages.

Pakistan, already grappling with water scarcity and a rapidly growing population, faces a dire situation. Its water storage capacity is low, and any interruption in the Indus flows exacerbates existing vulnerabilities. Some experts believe that if India begins controlling the flow with its existing and potential infrastructure, Pakistan could feel the impact most acutely during the dry season, when water availability is already at its lowest. A Pakistani senator has even described India's actions as dropping a "water bomb," warning of potential famine if the water crisis is not addressed.

Enter the Mohmand Dam, a multi-purpose project on the River Swat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, backed by China. As India's actions intensify concerns about water security, Pakistan is leaning on this project to alleviate some of the pressure. China is reportedly fast-tracking the dam's construction, viewing it as a "national flagship project" for Pakistan and a symbol of their enduring alliance. The dam is designed to store 1.29 million acre-feet (MAF) of water, irrigate 18,237 acres of new farmland, supplement irrigation for 160,000 acres of existing land, generate 800 megawatts (MW) of clean hydropower, and supply 300 million gallons of water per day to Peshawar for drinking purposes. Construction is progressing steadily, with completion expected by 2027-2028.

The Mohmand Dam, once completed, will become a critical piece of infrastructure for Pakistan, the world's fifth-highest concrete-face rock-fill dam (CFRD) and Pakistan's tallest CFRD. It is projected to yield annual economic benefits of Rs. 51.6 billion through water storage, power generation, and flood control. However, whether it can fully compensate for potential water losses resulting from India's actions remains to be seen.

The situation remains fraught with uncertainty. Some analysts believe that India is unlikely to cause a humanitarian crisis in Pakistan by completely cutting off water supplies, as this would carry significant risks for India. However, the suspension of the IWT and the potential for India to exert greater control over the Indus flows create a tense environment where water resources have become a strategic tool. Pakistan's reliance on the Mohmand Dam highlights the urgency of addressing its water security challenges and diversifying its water sources. The dam represents a significant investment in flood control, water management, and renewable energy, but its success is contingent on a complex interplay of factors, including regional stability, climate change, and the evolving dynamics of the Indus Waters Treaty.