The southwest monsoon has officially arrived in Kerala, marking its earliest onset in 16 years. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the arrival on Saturday, May 24, 2025, a week ahead of the normal onset date of June 1st. This is the earliest the monsoon has reached the southern state since 2009 when it arrived on May 23rd.
The early arrival of the monsoon has been attributed to favorable weather conditions. Dr. Shubhangi Bhute, head of the Regional Meteorological Centre in Mumbai, noted that conditions were ripe for the monsoon to advance, reaching the Kerala coast almost a week early. The IMD had earlier predicted an above-normal monsoon season for 2025, with cumulative rainfall likely to exceed 104% of the Long Period Average.
While the early arrival brings cheer, it has also triggered heavy rainfall and strong winds in several parts of Kerala. Many districts are experiencing power outages due to uprooted trees and snapped power lines. The IMD has issued red and orange alerts for various districts in Kerala, warning of extremely heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Revenue Minister K Rajan has urged the public to exercise caution and limit travel to safe areas.
The monsoon's progress isn't limited to Kerala. It has also advanced into parts of Karnataka, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Mizoram. The IMD anticipates further advancement into Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, the remaining areas of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Sikkim within the next 2-3 days. Conditions are also favorable for the monsoon to progress into other parts of the central Arabian Sea, Goa, and Northeastern states.
The early onset of the monsoon holds significant implications for India's agriculture sector. Timely rains are crucial for recharging groundwater, filling reservoirs, and supporting the early sowing of kharif crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton. A consistent spread and distribution of rainfall are essential to ensure a successful kharif season, which is vital for food security and rural incomes.
However, experts caution that the overall rainfall and its distribution across the country are more important than the onset date in Kerala. Uneven rainfall or prolonged dry spells could negate the benefits of an early start. The IMD will continue to monitor the monsoon's progress and provide updates on its spread and intensity.
In addition to the southwest monsoon, a depression in the East Central Arabian Sea and adjoining south Konkan coast is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the west coast, including Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra, and Goa, over the next few days. The IMD has warned of the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala between May 24th and 26th.
While the monsoon brings relief from the summer heat, it also poses challenges. Authorities are on high alert and have issued instructions for monsoon preparedness. The public is advised to stay informed about weather updates and take necessary precautions to minimize the impact of heavy rainfall and strong winds.
India is also set to become the first country to have its own high-resolution global weather forecast system. The Bharat Forecast System (BFS), developed by indigenous scientists, will operate at a 6-km resolution over global tropics, providing more detailed forecasts of weather events like heavy rainfall and cyclones. This advanced system is expected to significantly enhance the country's ability to predict and respond to extreme weather events.
