Pakistan's agricultural sector is facing a severe crisis as the Kharif season, crucial for sowing summer crops, begins. The country's two major dams, Mangla and Tarbela, are experiencing a significant dip in live storage, while inflows from the Chenab River have decreased due to regulation of water flow by India. This confluence of factors has created a precarious situation for Pakistani farmers, threatening crop yields and the overall economy.

The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has estimated an overall water shortage of 21% for the Kharif season. The agency "noted with concern" that the "sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortage in early Kharif season". The reduced water availability is particularly alarming given the importance of the Kharif season for cultivating water-intensive crops like cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize. These crops are not only vital for domestic consumption but also contribute significantly to Pakistan's export earnings. A shortfall in production could have dire consequences for the country's trade balance and food security.

Several factors have contributed to this crisis. The low water levels in Mangla and Tarbela dams, key reservoirs for irrigation in Punjab and Sindh provinces, are a primary concern. Compounding this issue is the decreased flow of the Chenab River, which Pakistani authorities attribute to India's management of water flow in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack. Following the attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). While the treaty was in abeyance, India began flushing the reservoirs of the Baglihar and Salal hydroelectric projects on the Chenab in Jammu and Kashmir. Flushing involves releasing a surge of water to clear silt and sediment, a process that reduces water flow to Pakistan during the operation. An unnamed Indian official stated the process could last one to two weeks, reducing water flow to Pakistan and potentially affecting the early stages of Kharif crop sowing.

The situation is further complicated by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Under the treaty, India is permitted to use water from the western rivers, including the Chenab, for specific purposes like power generation. However, Pakistan has often raised concerns about India's interpretation and implementation of the treaty, particularly regarding the construction and operation of hydroelectric projects. The current crisis has reignited these concerns, with Pakistani officials alleging that India is using its infrastructure to manipulate water flows to Pakistan's detriment.

In response to the looming crisis, IRSA has advised dam authorities and irrigation agencies to use water from reservoirs judiciously, considering the "crisis created by Indian short supplies in Chenab river". The committee agreed to adopt a conjunctive use strategy for managing water from Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs. This measure aims to ensure that provinces receive their allocated shares despite the reduced river flows. However, these measures may not be sufficient to mitigate the impact of the water shortage, especially if the monsoon rains are delayed or inadequate.

The water shortage poses a significant threat to Pakistan's agricultural sector and overall economy. Reduced water supply during the sowing season can lead to lower crop yields, affecting farmers' incomes and potentially increasing food prices for consumers. The textile sector, heavily reliant on cotton production, could also suffer, impacting Pakistan's export earnings. Agricultural experts warn that reduced water supply, particularly during sowing months, may have ripple effects on rural incomes, export earnings, and food security. Cotton output, vital for the country's textile sector, could face significant setbacks if irrigation shortfalls persist.

To address the crisis, Pakistan needs to adopt a multi-pronged approach. This includes improving water management practices, investing in water storage capacity, and engaging in diplomatic efforts with India to ensure the fair and equitable distribution of water resources as per the Indus Waters Treaty.