The recent rhetoric surrounding water disputes involving China, Pakistan, and India raises concerns about escalating regional tensions. Pakistan, facing potential water scarcity due to India's actions concerning the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), has hinted that China could retaliate against India by controlling the flow of the Brahmaputra River. However, experts suggest that this may be more of a strategic bluff than a genuine threat.
Following a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which India blamed on cross-border terrorism, India decided to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. The treaty, brokered in 1960 with the World Bank's mediation, regulates water-sharing of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. Islamabad has condemned the move as unilateral and illegal, warning of dire consequences. In response, Pakistani officials have suggested that China could take similar measures regarding the Brahmaputra, a trans-boundary river originating in Tibet, which could severely impact India's northeastern states.
Victor Gao, Vice President of the Center for China and Globalization, has stated that China will stand by Pakistan's sovereignty and water security, emphasizing that the Indus Waters Treaty must be upheld. He criticized unilateral actions to divert shared water resources, advocating for regional cooperation on water management. This statement has been interpreted by some as a warning to India against using water as a tool of coercion against Pakistan.
However, Assam's Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has dismissed Pakistan's claims as a "new scare narrative." He clarified that the Brahmaputra is primarily fed by Indian monsoon rains, with China contributing only a smaller portion of its flow. Sarma pointed out that the Brahmaputra swells significantly after entering India due to torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Hydrological data indicates that the river's flow at the Indo-China border ranges between 2,000 and 3,000 cubic meters per second, but increases dramatically to 15,000–20,000 cubic meters per second in Assam during the monsoon season. He also noted that any reduction in water flow from China might even help India mitigate the annual floods in Assam.
Moreover, China has never officially threatened to weaponize the Brahmaputra, and such speculation is seen as fear-mongering. While China is building a large dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet, concerns about its potential impact on downstream flows have been downplayed by Chinese authorities, who insist the dam will not affect downstream nations. Some experts also suggest that China currently lacks the capacity to significantly impact the Brahmaputra's flow due to geographical constraints.
Therefore, while Pakistan's concerns about India's actions regarding the Indus Waters Treaty are understandable, using the possibility of China cutting off Brahmaputra's water as a retaliatory threat appears to be a strategic move to garner international attention and support. The reality is that India contributes significantly more to the Brahmaputra's water volume, and China's ability and willingness to drastically alter the river's flow remain questionable. This suggests that Pakistan's "turning off the tap" narrative is likely a bluff aimed at increasing pressure on India and highlighting its water security concerns.
