India's forthcoming population and caste census, slated to begin in March 2027, is poised to trigger a nationwide delimitation exercise, potentially reshaping the country's political landscape. This move, approved by the Cabinet Committee, marks a significant step towards addressing long-standing demands for equitable representation and social justice.

The delimitation process involves redrawing constituency boundaries to ensure each parliamentary and assembly constituency reflects current population dynamics. This exercise, held off since 1976, aims to correct imbalances in representation that have emerged due to varying population growth rates across different states. The Constitution mandates that delimitation be based on population figures from the first census after 2026.

The decision to conduct the census, including caste enumeration, has been hailed as a commitment to social and economic empowerment. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw described it as a step towards "social justice and inclusive governance." For the first time since 1931, caste categories will be enumerated, providing more reliable data on the socio-economic standing of various groups. This information can inform development planning and targeted social security schemes.

However, the prospect of delimitation has also raised concerns, particularly among southern states that have experienced lower population growth rates. These states fear that their parliamentary representation will diminish if population becomes the sole criterion for redrawing constituency boundaries. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has voiced his apprehension, accusing the central government of delaying the census to reduce the state's representation.

To conduct the delimitation exercise, the central government will need to establish a delimitation commission by passing an act in Parliament. This commission, typically headed by a Supreme Court judge, will include the Chief Election Commissioner or one of the Election Commissioners, and the State Election Commissioners of the relevant states and union territories. The commission will devise a formula for determining population per constituency, consulting with state governments and other stakeholders.

The delimitation exercise could also address the long-standing issue of women's representation in Parliament. With the government promising to implement 33% reservation for women in Parliament, delimitation could pave the way for reserving specific seats for women candidates.

The upcoming census will be digitally administered for the first time, enabling faster data gathering and easier accessibility for analysis. The reference date for the census is set as March 1, 2027, for most of the country, with some regions like Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and Uttarakhand potentially beginning the process earlier in October 2026. The collection of data, including house listing and population counting along with caste enumeration, is expected to conclude by March 1, 2027.

The completion of the census and subsequent delimitation exercise is likely to take several years. While some sources suggest the delimitation could be completed by 2028, others believe the final census data may take up to three years to publish, making significant changes to the number of Lok Sabha seats or the implementation of women's reservation before the 2029 Lok Sabha polls unlikely. It is plausible, however, that the central government will attempt to pass the Delimitation Act ahead of the 2029 elections to establish the Delimitation Commission and proceed with the delimitation and reservation of seats for women soon after.

The census and delimitation processes are complex and politically sensitive. They require careful planning, extensive consultation with stakeholders, and a commitment to fairness and transparency. The decisions made during these processes will have a profound impact on India's political landscape for decades to come.