The Communist Party of India (Maoist), once a formidable force of Red terror across a significant portion of India, finds itself in a state of unprecedented decline. Years of sustained counter-insurgency operations, arrests, surrenders, and casualties due to illness have drastically reduced its organizational strength and leadership. The outfit, which once held sway across 10 states, is now largely confined to the Dandakaranya region and a few isolated pockets, its armed cadre strength dwindling to a mere 300.

The most significant indicator of this decline is the decimation of its top leadership, particularly within the two apex bodies: the Politburo (PB) and the Central Committee (CC). The recent elimination of the CPI (Maoist)'s general secretary, Nambala Keshav Rao alias Basavaraju, by the Chhattisgarh Police, along with his entire protection team, served as a major blow to the organization.

Since 2005, the Maoist Politburo has suffered a series of crippling losses. Fourteen PB members have been either arrested, killed in action, or succumbed to illnesses. As a result, the PB, which serves as the highest decision-making body of the CPI (Maoist), has been reduced to a skeletal force of just four active members: Muppalla Laxman Rao alias Ganpathy, Mallojula Venugopal alias Abhay, Thippiri Tirupathi alias Deoji, and Misir Besra. It is speculated that either Abhay or Deoji, both hailing from Telangana, may be in line to succeed Basavaraju as the general secretary, though the CPI (Maoist) has yet to make an official announcement. In contrast, at the height of the insurgency, the Politburo boasted at least 11-12 members.

The erosion of the PB began in 2005 with the arrest of Sushil Roy in West Bengal. Between 2008 and 2011, several more PB members were apprehended, including Pramod Mishra, Kobad Gandhy, Amitabh Bagchi, and Jagdish Yadav. Others, such as Prashant Bose alias Kishen Da and Katakam Sudharshan, have either been arrested or died due to illness.

The Central Committee, which includes all PB members and other key leaders, has also suffered significant attrition. Since 2007, 26 non-PB members of the CC have been lost due to arrests, surrenders, and deaths from illnesses. Currently, the CC has only 14 active members, including the four PB leaders. A dozen CC members are currently incarcerated, and three have died from diseases. Furthermore, four CC members have surrendered in Telangana and Maharashtra, and seven have been neutralized since 2007, including four this year alone. Active CC members now include Kadari Satyanaryana Reddy, Chandranna, Modem Balakrishna, Ganesh Uike, Gajarla Ravi, Anal da, Madvi Hidma, K Ramachandra Reddy, Sujata, and Malla Raja Reddy.

The depletion of the CPI (Maoist)'s leadership has had a cascading effect on the organization's overall strength and operational capabilities. Intelligence officials estimate that the Maoist armed strength across the country has shrunk to approximately 1,300 members, a significant decrease from 1,700 just two years ago. This decline is attributed to aggressive operations by security forces, particularly in the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh, as well as a lack of communication between the group's various armed and unarmed factions.

Bastar Inspector General of Police (IGP) Sundarraj P stated that the command structure of the Maoists is now in tatters, with consistent intelligence-led operations and surrenders having fragmented and disoriented the organization. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has set a deadline of March 2026 to eradicate Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in the country, indicating the government's commitment to eliminating the Maoist threat.

Despite facing immense pressure and significant losses, the CPI (Maoist) has lately issued several appeals for ceasefire and talks. However, no PB or CC leader has taken up the forces' renewed offer to surrender, possibly due to ego. The future of the CPI (Maoist) remains uncertain, but with its leadership depleted, cadre strength diminished, and facing relentless pressure from security forces, the organization is undoubtedly at its weakest point in decades.