Pakistan is facing a severe water crisis as declining river flows from India have brought key dams perilously close to their "dead level" at the start of the Kharif season. This situation threatens agricultural production in the crucial provinces of Punjab and Sindh, exacerbating existing water shortages.

The reduction in water flow primarily concerns the western rivers – the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – which originate in India. Pakistan is now discharging more water than it receives from these rivers to meet its drinking and irrigation needs. While decreased flows are typical during the pre-monsoon season, the situation is expected to worsen in the coming weeks. India's ongoing desilting and flushing of dams in Jammu & Kashmir, aimed at increasing its storage capacity, will further reduce water flow into Pakistan.

According to a daily water situation report by Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA), the country had to discharge 11,180 cusecs more water than the inflow on Wednesday. The collective outflow from monitoring stations at Tarbela (Indus), Mangla (Jhelum), Marala (Chenab), and Nowshera (Kabul River) was 252,791 cusecs, while the inflow was only 241,611 cusecs. This imbalance will inevitably lead to a further decline in water availability in Punjab and Sindh, provinces heavily reliant on the Indus River system.

Punjab, where Kharif farming is already underway, received 114,600 cusecs of water on Wednesday, a 20% decrease compared to the 143,600 cusecs received on the same day last year. Making matters worse, water storage in the Mangla and Tarbela dams has reached levels near their respective "dead levels." At this point, there are no outlets to drain water from the reservoirs by gravity. Further reductions in water flow from India could leave Pakistan with limited options to support farming operations before the arrival of monsoon rains, which are still weeks away.

IRSA's advisory committee had already anticipated this crisis, declaring an overall water shortage of 21% for the early Kharif season (May 1 – June 10). The committee noted a "sudden decrease" in Chenab inflows at Marala, which they attributed to "short supply by India." They also projected a 7% shortage for the late Kharif season (June 11 – September 30).

Adding to the complexity, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and has been regulating the flow of the Chenab River. Following a terror attack in Pahalgam, India closed the sluice gates of the Baglihar and Salal dams in Jammu and Kashmir, significantly reducing the Chenab River flow into Pakistan. Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) reported a sharp decline of 91,000 cusecs in water flow from India into the Chenab River in recent days. Data from Marala Headworks showed a drop from 98,200 cusecs on May 29 to just 7,200 cusecs on June 1, with no outflow reported.

The Chenab River is vital for Pakistan's agriculture, especially in Punjab province, where canals like the Upper Chenab and Bambawali-Ravi-Bedian (BRB) irrigate vast farmlands. Prolonged disruptions in water flows could severely impact crop production and the livelihoods of rural communities.

The water levels at Pakistan's major dams have dropped dangerously low. The Tarbela Dam on the Indus in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is barely above its dead level. The Mangla Dam on the Jhelum in Mirpur has also dropped precariously close to its dead level. This situation renders the reservoirs nearly useless for agriculture, as water cannot drain by gravity below the threshold.

The Pakistani government has expressed serious concerns over the reduced water flows and has accused India of conducting a "water war." With tensions escalating and the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, Pakistan faces a daunting challenge in ensuring water security for its agricultural sector and overall economy during the critical Kharif season.