Pakistan's longstanding aspiration to become a full dialogue partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces significant hurdles, despite renewed efforts and expressions of support from some member states. While the bid reflects Pakistan's commitment to strengthening regional cooperation and deepening engagement with the bloc, a confluence of factors suggests that achieving this goal may not be straightforward.
Pakistan's engagement with ASEAN dates back to 1993 when it became a Sectoral Dialogue Partner (SDP). This status, the oldest of its kind within ASEAN, covers cooperation in areas such as trade, industry, investment, environment, science and technology, drug enforcement, tourism, and human resource development. In 1999, Pakistan formally applied for Full Dialogue Partnership (FDP) status. However, ASEAN imposed a moratorium on establishing new FDPs until modalities were negotiated and approved. While the moratorium was lifted in 2022, granting FDP status to the United Kingdom, Pakistan's request remains pending.
Several factors contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Pakistan's bid. Firstly, ASEAN's decision-making processes prioritize consensus, meaning that any single member state can potentially block Pakistan's application. While Malaysia has voiced support for Pakistan's aspirations, securing unanimous backing from all ASEAN members may prove challenging.
Secondly, ASEAN has established specific criteria for participation in the East Asia Summit, which could serve as a benchmark for evaluating FDP candidates. These criteria include signing the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), being a formal dialogue partner of ASEAN, and demonstrating substantive cooperative relations with the organization. While Pakistan has acceded to the TAC and maintains sectoral dialogue partnership, the "substantive cooperative relations" aspect may require further strengthening.
Thirdly, several reports suggest that Pakistan has not been able to make significant economic inroads in Southeast Asia. The trade balance between ASEAN and Pakistan is heavily tilted in favor of ASEAN countries. Pakistan's exports to ASEAN were $3.3 billion in 2022, while imports were $8.83 billion in the same year. Ninety percent of Pakistan's trade is with five ASEAN countries: Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, The Philippines, and Indonesia. Pakistan has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Malaysia and a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with Indonesia. To bolster its case for FDP status, Pakistan needs to diversify its exports, address bureaucratic inefficiencies, and improve infrastructure to enhance connectivity with Southeast Asia. Untapped sectors like fintech, green energy, and halal trade could offer potential avenues for growth.
Fourthly, Pakistan's relations with some ASEAN member states may be influenced by geopolitical considerations and regional dynamics. Concerns related to security, counter-terrorism, and regional stability could impact the assessment of Pakistan's suitability as a full dialogue partner. To address these concerns, Pakistan should focus on confidence-building measures, conflict prevention, and promoting its image as a moderate and stable country.
Despite these challenges, Pakistan can take several steps to enhance its prospects of becoming a full dialogue partner. These include:
In conclusion, while Pakistan's bid to become a full dialogue partner of ASEAN reflects its desire for closer regional integration, several challenges need to be addressed. By strengthening bilateral relations, promoting economic cooperation, enhancing security cooperation, and fostering people-to-people connections, Pakistan can improve its prospects of achieving its goal. The decision, however, ultimately rests on the consensus of all ASEAN member states, taking into account various political, economic, and security considerations.
