The Bitcoin market is witnessing a significant shift in supply dynamics as the amount of Bitcoin held for the long term outpaces the rate of new coins being mined. This trend, characterized by an increasing dominance of "ancient" holders, those who have held their Bitcoin for 10 years or more, suggests a growing scarcity that could have substantial implications for future price movements.

Following the 2024 halving event, a noteworthy change occurred: the influx of Bitcoin into the "ancient supply" began to exceed the daily issuance of new Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets reported that an average of 566 BTC per day are entering this long-term holding category, while the current daily issuance hovers around 450 BTC. This means that more Bitcoin is being locked away for the long term than is being added to the circulating supply.

As of June 8, 2025, over 17% of the total issued Bitcoin supply is considered "ancient," representing approximately 3.4 million BTC, valued at over $360 billion. This growing proportion of long-term held Bitcoin underscores the strong conviction of this particular cohort of investors. The share of ancient supply tends to increase daily, with decreases observed less than 3% of the time.

The increasing dominance of long-term holders is further highlighted by projections indicating that ancient supply could reach 20% of the total issued supply by 2028 and 25% by 2034. If public companies holding 1,000 or more Bitcoin are included in the calculation, this figure could potentially reach 30% by 2035. The long term Bitcoin holders are not always inactive. There has been a decline day-to-day 10% of the time, nearly four times the historical average across the full data set dating back to 2019.

The behavior of long-term holders contrasts with that of short-term investors, especially in reaction to market events. For example, data indicates that following the U.S. election in 2024, the supply of five-year holders (or more) decreased on a day-to-day basis 39% of the time, which is three times more than the typical rate.

Several factors contribute to this growing trend. Institutional investors and the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have encouraged long-term custody. Data shows that long-term holders (LTHs), those holding BTC for over 155 days, are realizing significant profits, with their net realized profit/loss peaking at $930 million per day. The overall supply held by LTHs continues to rise, suggesting that while some long-term investors are selling, an even larger volume of coins is maturing into long-term status.

Adding to the supply dynamics are institutional flows, which are expected to further exacerbate the squeeze. UTXO Management projects that over $400 billion in institutional capital will flow into Bitcoin by the end of 2026, with over $120 billion expected by the end of 2025.

This supply squeeze, combined with increasing institutional demand, has led to speculation about Bitcoin's potential to reach $1 million. While scarcity alone doesn't guarantee price increases, it could become a focal point over time, especially with a growing contingent of long-term holders.

It's also important to note that despite the increasing scarcity and strong holder conviction, Bitcoin's price remains influenced by a variety of factors, including whale activity, regulatory developments, and broader market sentiment.