The bypoll results of June 2025 delivered a mixed bag of outcomes for the major political parties across four states: Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged as a significant gainer, while the Congress saw a mix of success and setbacks. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) maintained its dominance in West Bengal, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) held its ground in Gujarat, even as AAP made inroads.
In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) celebrated a significant victory in the Nilambur constituency. Aryadan Shoukath, son of the late Congress stalwart Aryadan Muhammed, won by a margin of over 11,000 votes against CPI(M)'s M Swaraj, dealing a blow to the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government. This win is seen as a reflection of anti-incumbency sentiment and a potential sign of growing public support for the UDF ahead of the 2026 assembly elections. An independent candidate, P.V. Anvar, also put up a strong performance, securing a notable number of votes.
Punjab witnessed the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retaining its hold on the Ludhiana West assembly seat. Sanjeev Arora, a Rajya Sabha MP, secured a victory against Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a margin exceeding 10,000 votes. This win is particularly crucial for AAP, especially after their recent reverses in Delhi. The bypoll was necessitated by the death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi earlier in the year.
West Bengal's Kaliganj constituency saw a landslide victory for the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Alifa Ahmed, daughter of the late Nasiruddin Ahmed, won by a significant margin of approximately 50,000 votes against her nearest rival from the BJP, Ashish Ghosh. The TMC has historically held a strong base in Kaliganj, owing to Nasiruddin Ahmed's groundwork and popularity, particularly among the constituency's Muslim population. However, the election was marred by an unfortunate incident where a young girl was killed in a bomb explosion in the area. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has assured strict action against the culprits.
In Gujarat, the BJP and AAP both secured a seat each. The BJP retained its hold on the Kadi seat, with Rajendra Chavda winning by a margin of around 39,500 votes. Meanwhile, AAP's Gopal Italia won the Visavadar seat, defeating BJP's Kirit Patel by over 17,000 votes. This victory is particularly significant for AAP, as it demonstrates their growing presence in Gujarat, where they are positioning themselves as a strong alternative to both the BJP and Congress. Following the defeat, the Gujarat Congress president, Shaktisinh Gohil, resigned from his position.
Overall, the bypoll results indicate shifting political dynamics in these states. The Congress's win in Kerala provides a morale boost ahead of future elections, while their losses in Gujarat and Punjab are a cause for concern. AAP's performance, particularly in Gujarat and Punjab, suggests a growing acceptance and increasing voter confidence in the party. The TMC's continued dominance in West Bengal reinforces their stronghold in the state. The BJP will need to re-evaluate its strategy in states where AAP is emerging as a strong contender, particularly in Gujarat, where the party has historically enjoyed significant support.
