Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old New York State Assemblymember representing Queens, has emerged as a significant contender in the New York City mayoral race, posing a formidable challenge to former Governor Andrew Cuomo. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll released on June 23, 2025, just ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary, indicates a tightening race, with Mamdani surpassing Cuomo in a ranked-choice voting simulation.
The poll reveals that while Cuomo leads in the first round with 35% of the vote, followed by Mamdani at 32%, the situation shifts dramatically as the ranked-choice voting simulation progresses through eight rounds. Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo's 12, ultimately putting him ahead with 52% of the vote to Cuomo's 48%. This marks the first time Mamdani has led in an Emerson poll, demonstrating a significant surge in his support over the past few months.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted the dramatic shift in voter sentiment, stating, "Over five months, Mamdani's support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began. In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo's 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll."
Mamdani's rise is attributed to several factors, including his progressive platform, grassroots activism, and endorsements from prominent figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. His platform focuses on lowering the city's cost of living, expanding social services, and challenging the status quo. Key proposals include free city buses, a rent freeze on rent-stabilized units, public child care, and city-owned grocery stores aimed at driving down prices. He also supports raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030 and has proposed an 800% increase in the city's anti-hate crime budget.
His personal story also resonates with voters. Born in Kampala, Uganda, Mamdani moved to New York City at age 7 and has been a vocal advocate for working-class New Yorkers. He gained recognition for his involvement in securing debt relief for taxi drivers and championing a fare-free bus pilot program.
Despite his growing popularity, Mamdani faces challenges. His self-identification as a democratic socialist and his views on Israel have drawn criticism and could alienate moderate Democrats and the city's influential Jewish electorate. Some have even accused him of positions bordering on antisemitism, a charge his supporters vehemently deny.
Cuomo, on the other hand, is running on his experience and deep name recognition. However, he also faces scrutiny due to the circumstances surrounding his resignation as governor in 2021.
The New York Working Families Party has ranked Mamdani as their #1 choice for mayor, underscoring his appeal among progressive voters. The party views him as best poised to defeat Cuomo and bring a new era of leadership to the city.
The outcome of the Democratic primary remains uncertain, but Mamdani's surge in the polls indicates a significant shift in the dynamics of the race. As New Yorkers head to the polls, the choice between experience and a progressive vision will shape the future of the city.
